Crude oil prices have surged today, Monday, May 18, 2026, extending a multi-day rally as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reached a boiling point. Both global benchmarks, Brent and WTI, are trading at their highest levels in weeks.
​Prices moved sharply higher as the market reacted to escalating rhetoric regarding the Strait of Hormuz and a weekend attack on energy infrastructure. The market is currently being fueled by a “perfect storm” of supply fears and geopolitical instability.
​President Trump issued a stern warning over the weekend, stating that “time is of the essence” for Iran to reach a deal or face severe consequences. This rhetoric, combined with the expiration of waivers for Russian crude, has convinced traders that supply will remain tight for the foreseeable future.
​The Strait remains effectively closed to most commercial shipping due to competing blockades. Since nearly 20% of global oil passes through this waterway, its continued closure is the primary driver of the current $100+ price environment. Analysts from Morgan Stanley have described this as a “race against time” before global stockpiles are depleted.
​A drone strike over the weekend targeted the Barakah nuclear power plant in the UAE. While the damage is still being assessed, the strike highlighted the fragility of the regional ceasefire and the vulnerability of non-combatant energy infrastructure, spooking investors.
Despite the crisis, OPEC+ has only agreed to a “symbolic” production increase of 188,000 barrels per day for June. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently warned of the “largest oil supply crisis in recorded history,” projecting that global supply will fall short of demand by roughly 1.78 million barrels per day in 2026.
​Market analysts are watching key resistance levels closely. For WTI, if prices breach $112, the next major psychological target is $120. Conversely, support remains steady at $102. For Brent, a sustained move above $115 could quickly pave the way for a run toward $125.
​The market remains in a state of “cautious bullishness,” where any news regarding a breakthrough (or breakdown) in negotiations will likely cause immediate and significant price swings.
