Nigeria’s economy is poised for a steady acceleration over the coming years, with gross domestic product expected to expand by 4.3 percent in 2026 before climbing to an average of 4.4 percent through 2028, according to the World Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update (NDU) report.
​Unveiled on Thursday during a media presentation at the World Bank Country Office in Asokoro, Abuja, the flagship report paints a cautious yet increasingly optimistic picture of Africa’s largest economy.
The updated figures reflect a notable uptick from the 4.0 percent growth recorded in 2025, driven largely by sustained momentum in services, agriculture, and a stabilized foreign exchange regime.
​World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Ndiame Diop, delivered the opening address, attributing the improved outlook to the government’s firm stance on long-overdue fiscal and monetary corrections.
​”Economic activity in Nigeria is strengthening, moving from 4.0 percent in 2025 to a projected 4.3 percent in 2026, and anchoring at an average of 4.4 percent through 2028,” Diop told the gathering of policymakers, analysts, and journalists.
The painful but necessary structural reforms, most notably the deregulation of petrol prices and the unification of the exchange rate are beginning to yield structural stability. The priority now is ensuring this growth translates into lower inflation and meaningful poverty reduction.”
​The NDU report highlights a significant easing of inflationary pressures, forecasting headline inflation to drop from 23.0 percent in 2025 to 15.7 percent in 2026, before settling near 12.2 percent by 2028.
This disinflationary trend, paired with a strengthening current account surplus expected to hit 6.0 percent of GDP this year, has provided much-needed headroom for the Central Bank of Nigeria to normalize monetary policy.
​Presenting the detailed macroeconomic framework, Alex Sienaert, Lead Economist for Nigeria and co-author of the report, emphasized that maintaining policy consistency remains crucial.
​”The fundamental macroeconomic imbalances that plagued the economy for years have largely been unwound,” Sienaert noted. “However, the trajectory toward 4.4 percent growth relies heavily on private sector investment. To unlock higher growth capital, Nigeria must continue deepening trade reforms, improving security in agrarian zones, and building a more predictable regulatory environment.”
​Representing the Federal Government, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, welcomed the World Bank’s assessment, framing it as validation of the administration’s policy direction.
​”We acknowledge the sacrifices made by Nigerian citizens and businesses over the past several years,” Edun stated during the executive Q&A session. “These projections demonstrate that our economic foundation is finally recalibrating for long-term expansion.
Our immediate focus is expanding targeted social safety nets and boosting direct support to smallholder farmers to buffer vulnerable households against residual price volatility.”
​Despite the upbeat medium-term outlook, the World Bank warned that significant downside risks persist. Global geopolitical instability, lingering domestic security challenges in key agricultural belts, extreme weather events, and crude oil price volatility could still threaten Nigeria’s fiscal targets if left unmitigated.
