By Charles Novia
In the interview, Atiku unequivocally stated that he is running for President in 2027. He also says he’s the strongest and most popular candidate from the North today in Nigeria, capable of winning the North in 2027.
Obidients and some others in the opposition who don’t like to read the truth about political realities will not like this…but…I am inclined to agree with him on this.
Atiku is indeed the most popular and most experienced politician in the North today.
The statistics from the 2019 Presidential Election and the 2023 Presidential Election, say it all.
Using the last Presidential Election results (which a lot of people, including me, are convinced was massively rigged in favour of the incumbent), Atiku was given the second position.
The other Northern Politician who came fourth in the votes, Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, won only one state..Kano. He performed poorly in other Northern states, in spite of his optical popularity.
So, Atiku is right when he brags that he’s the most popular politician from the North alive today.
This brings to the present game, the glaring realities of the nail-biting conundrum in the ADC, and also in the opposition polity today.
Before I analyse further, I refresh my earlier analyses given at various times on my Facebook page since 2024 on the coalition.
I have consistently maintained that it would be a wishful thinking for anyone to believe Atiku would not be on the ballot in 2027. Some vociferous Obidients would scream that it’s either Obi or nothing for the ADC. My stand has always been that Obi would either have to spend that money he hesitates to spend, in the ADC Primaries or find others who will help him spend it for him to win against Atiku in the Primaries.
And it’s looking like that will be the scenario.
Some Obidients in ADC are already spreading online flyers of an Obi and Kwankwaso ADC ticket, which they have termed ‘OK 2027’.
I love that innovative slogan! I am one of those who think that would bring a new spur to the race in 2027. As one who have publicly stated many times that I would never vote for an APC candidate in the Presidential election, I wouldn’t mind an OK Ticket!
But I am also a realist. With the way Atiku Abubakar spoke in that interview, he’s quite sure of winning the ADC ticket.
Unless the money bags in ADC rise up and square up against him in the Primaries to make Obi the Presidential Flagbearer.
Who are the Money Men in the ADC who would do this, if they have to at all? There are a few top billionaires in there, apart from Obi and Atiku. There is Rotimi Amaechi, David Mark and even Kwankwaso himself. It’s possible that El-Rufai can muster some money to put in the bet, if these guys believe in the OK Ticket.
But then, politics is not based on permutations of popularity only but on the most expedient ways of winning the 2027 election against the APC.
When Atiku says he is the most popular politician today in the North, let us not forget he also has combined votes from 2019 and 2023 of over 18 million to boast about. He’s right about that.
And whoever wins the North resoundingly will win the 2027 election. This I have stated many times.
Tinubu’s random strategy to winning the 2027 election is the Jonathan/PDP strategy in 2011; win the whole South and win the North Central.
Even with almost all the Northern states with the APC, Tinubu is still jittery. Real time reports of voting realities show that many states in the North will not vote for him in 2027. The Northern Governors know it’s a difficult task but many won’t tell him. This was what the Northern Governors in the PDP did to Jonathan in 2015.
The combined votes of the South for Tinubu in 2027, even if they rig it, cannot match the votes of 4 or 5 states in the North when it comes to numbers needed to crunch a win. So, Tinubu needs the North to win.
But wahala dey…
Let’s look at the ADC’s chances of winning by throwing up two scenarios.
First, if Peter Obi wins the ADC Primaries and picks a Kwankwaso as his running mate….
Peter Obi would be looking at doing much better in the North in 2027 by winning beyond the North Central and possibly win in the North West or North East. Kwankwaso would have to work doubly hard to activate his popularity and his movement beyond Kano State. If the core North is sold on the narrative that Obi will only serve for one term and hand over to the North, this ticket stands a great chance of winning Tinubu in 2027.
The second spectre would be an Atiku-Obi ticket.
This is where it gets dicey.
If Atiku gets the ADC ticket, will Obi agree to be his running mate? On paper and realistically, with both of them on the ticket, there is no way Tinubu will win in 2027. Atiku-Obi will sweep the North and the South.
But the problem is; Obi would likely not want to upset a majority of his Obidients base by accepting the offer to be Atiku’s running mate. But this might be the easiest way for Obi to become President because Atiku would naturally be disposed to handing over to Obi after his tenure as President. This is the simple mathematics to getting into Aso Rock for Obi. But it’s going to be a hard sell to the Obidients.
If Atiku offers the running mate position to Obi and Obi rejects it, the next option for Atiku would be a Rotimi Amaechi. Naturally, with the sentiments against Tinubu in the North, Atiku will win major states in the North and will be looking for at least 4 states in the South to make a winning impact. With Amaechi on the ballot, Rivers will be a battlefield between him and Wike but I think Amaechi will deliver Rivers. Where they have to win in other South South states or even South East states will be left for conjecture.
By the way, don’t underate Amaechi. Many have forgotten that he came second in the 2022 APC Primaries which Tinubu won. If Tinubu was not running on the APC that year, Amaechi would have been the APC Flagbearer!
So, we have the scenarios which will likely play out.
Atiku will not step down. Neither will Obi. Neither will Amaechi too.
They will slug it out.
At the end of the day, if Atiku wins the ADC Primaries, I do not think it will be as easy for Tinubu to win even if Obi is not on the ballot, either. Tinubu will struggle in the North against the combined forces of Atiku, Kwankwaso and El-Rufai.
Obidients would have to live with the political realities thereafter and perhaps boycott the election but it might turn out to be a risky gamble later.
By the end of May 2026, we all would know who the ADC flagbearer is.
