2027: INEC’s scratch and possible crash

June 5, 2026
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NOTHING is ever truly a crisis in Nigeria when it concerns the architecture of power.

Again and again, we witness the same ritual. A breach occurs. An institution stumbles. Public trust is shaken. Then comes the familiar chorus of reassurance. We are told the incident is isolated. The damage is limited. The system remains intact. The nation is encouraged to focus on the scratch rather than the crack spreading beneath the foundation.

That instinct may be politically convenient, but it is often how institutional decline begins.

The controversy surrounding the compromise of electoral data should concern Nigerians for reasons that extend far beyond the personalities involved. Public debate has largely revolved around who obtained the information, who disclosed it, who circulated it, and which political interests may have benefited from its release.

Those questions matter.

But they are not the most important questions.

The more important question is what this episode reveals about the institutions entrusted with safeguarding the democratic process itself.

Democracy is sustained by trust long before it is sustained by votes.

Citizens provide personal information because they believe it will be protected. They participate in elections because they believe the machinery of democracy belongs to the Republic rather than to competing political factions.

Every electoral institution, every voter register, every database, and every administrative process ultimately rests upon a simple assumption: that those entrusted with public power will exercise that power responsibly.

When that assumption begins to weaken, the consequences reach far beyond a single incident.

Much has been made of whether this episode constituted a hack or an internal disclosure. If anything, that distinction makes the matter more serious rather than less.

A hack means your firewall failed.

An insider leak means your foundation failed.

A hack means someone forced their way through the gate.

An insider leak means the gatekeepers are the ones renting out the keys.

That is not a technical distinction. It is a moral one.

Technology can be upgraded. Software can be patched. Servers can be replaced.

A culture that permits the misuse of entrusted power is far more difficult to repair.

The greatest threat to public institutions is rarely the stranger outside the walls. More often, it is the gradual normalisation of conduct that would once have been considered unacceptable. Standards bend. Boundaries blur. Exceptions multiply. What was once unthinkable becomes explainable. What was explainable becomes routine.

And routine is where institutional decline takes root.

This is why the significance of this controversy extends beyond the immediate facts of the case. The issue is not merely that information was disclosed. The issue is that citizens have been forced to confront a question they should never have to ask:

Who is protecting the protectors?

That question reaches beyond electoral administration. It reaches into every institution that holds power on behalf of the public. Every agency that stores personal information. Every office whose authority depends on public confidence. Every official entrusted with responsibilities that citizens cannot personally verify but must simply trust.

Trust is the invisible infrastructure of a democracy.

Roads can be rebuilt.

Buildings can be reconstructed.

Technology can be replaced.

Trust is harder.

Once citizens begin to suspect that access, influence, political convenience, or proximity to power matter more than rules, confidence begins to erode. Institutions may continue to function. Elections may continue to be conducted. Procedures may continue to be observed. But legitimacy is not sustained by procedure alone.

It is sustained by belief.

That is why accountability matters.

Not because accountability can erase what has already happened.

Not because accountability satisfies public anger.

But because accountability signals that standards still exist.

Without standards, rules become suggestions.

Without consequences, safeguards become theatre.

Without trust, democracy becomes procedure without legitimacy.

There is another uncomfortable reality that cannot be ignored. Public confidence suffers whenever citizens begin to suspect that the seriousness of an offence depends less on the offence itself than on the identity of the person accused. The rule of law derives its authority from consistency. The moment accountability appears selective, justice itself begins to lose credibility.

No democratic system can afford that perception for long.

History offers a warning that societies repeatedly ignore. Democracies rarely collapse because of a single dramatic event. They are weakened by countless moments in which people are encouraged to dismiss what should concern them. A compromise here. An exception there. A violation explained away because it appears politically convenient. A breach minimised because acknowledging its significance would be uncomfortable.

Until one day the cumulative damage becomes impossible to deny.

The danger before us is not merely what was disclosed.

The danger is the possibility that we are becoming accustomed to the disclosure.

The danger is not simply that a line may have been crossed.

The danger is that we are forgetting why the line existed in the first place.

A nation does not lose faith in its institutions all at once.

It loses faith one exception at a time.

And when trust finally collapses, the crash always arrives long after the scratches were ignored.

The breach of INEC portal therefore needs to be treated with the urgency required to avoid a crash than a mere scratch on INEC’s oft-queried willingness to deliver a transparent election.

Shaakaa can be reached on: shaakaastephanie@yahoo.com

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