The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April 2026 today, May 15. Projections are very close to the consensus among analysts, who are bracing for a second consecutive monthly rise in headline inflation.
​While projections noted of a 16.42%, most major outlooks (such as those from Coronation and Parthian Partners) are clustering slightly lower, between 15.85% and 15.95%. Regardless of the exact decimal, the trend is clear: the disinflationary “cooling era” that lasted nearly a year has officially stalled.
The surge in Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices averaging ₦1,322.50 per liter in April is the primary “roadblock” to lower inflation. This is a significant jump from roughly ₦1,208 in March.
Global volatility in the Middle East has kept Brent crude high (averaging over $127/bbl in April), which filters directly into Nigerian transport and logistics costs.
Persistent insecurity in the northern food belts continues to limit supply, keeping the cost of staples like yams, cassava, and tomatoes high, despite a slight cooling in festive demand.
​When the official NBS figures drop, analysts will be looking at Core Inflation (which excludes volatile energy and food). In March, this stood at 16.21%, and there are fears it will edge higher as the “second-round effects” of fuel price hikes finally seep into services like education and healthcare.
This uptick puts the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in a tough spot. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets next week (May 19-20), and these figures likely kill any hope of a rate cut before the end of the year. Expect a “cautious and defensive” stance from the markets today.
