EXPRESSO >>> By Steve Osuji ​
And again and again, it centers on a certain Peter Obi, a businessman-cum-politician in Nigeria, Africa’s largest sovereign space. He is poised as a modern-day titan—the deus ex machina to resolve the quagmire that has gripped Nigeria over the last six decades. ​Nigeria is a country that could have been great. Yet it remains merely potentially great, continuing to regress almost irretrievably. Most of its citizens have given up on it. The world, too, turns its nose up at the stench oozing out of the dungeon.
Even Donald Trump must have had Nigeria in mind when he quipped about “shithole” countries in Africa. ​Nigeria’s latest badge of infamy is earning the title of housing the highest number of impoverished people on earth. Look at the numbers: Nigeria has a population of about 240 million, yet it has more indigent people than India or China—each home to over 1.4 billion people.
​While those two behemoths were progressively clearing the cobwebs of lack and disease from their populations, Nigeria’s leadership has been aggressively grinding its citizens into the abyss of impoverishment and destitution. ​The last eleven years under the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) have left Nigeria and its populace on a path toward extinction. This explains why 73 percent of the population—about 175 million people—are in a severe crisis.
About 70 million of this total was single-handedly added by the current administration of President Bola Tinubu in just three years. ​Yet Tinubu rules with a finagled mandate, nicked from Peter Obi of the Labour Party in the 2023 election. If President Tinubu were as clever with the economy as he was agile in manipulating the polls, the country would not be in such a sorry pass today. In three years, it has become apparent that Tinubu cannot put two and two together.
And when he tries, he always seems to get forty-four as an answer instead of four. ​Upon assuming office in 2023, he embarked on a voodoo reform without a clear blueprint. Three years later, he announced gleefully to the world that he had stabilized the economy. Today, he desperately seeks a second term, promising prosperity. ​Here lies the perfect example of Tinubu’s ineptitude and his total lack of self-awareness.
You cannot plunge 73 million people into extreme poverty in three years and then claim to be creating prosperity. What happens to the citizens buried in that mass grave of economic hardship? ​Tinubu lacks the capacity to lift people. He has failed to accomplish anything laudatory so far. Worse still, he has no compass. His regime is remarkable primarily for brazen corruption and incompetence.
For instance, not a single budget cycle has been successfully implemented since 2023. As you read this in the 4th quarter of 2026, the federal government is still implementing the 2025 budget. Former President Obasanjo aptly described the situation today as “perverse corruption.” ​Tinubu is also racked by debilitating ailments and old age. Frail and fragile, he has missed the podium at UNGA since assuming office, cannot participate in presidential debates, cannot grant live press interviews, and today cannot even go on the campaign trail—his handlers fear the worst if he tries.
He has therefore scheduled a very limited campaign for a second term, signifying that he is not fit enough to shuttle around the country he seeks to continue leading. ​Let us not forget that he cannot set foot on US soil; Tinubu will go on record as the only elected Nigerian president who never visited the White House. The reasons are clear: Tinubu has unsettled narco issues there, and the CIA holds dark files on him that must never be made public.
Give it to the Nigerian president—he is as hardy as they come, carrying baggage that would drown a dozen donkeys. Yet he is expected to lead and deliver results? Never. All he has tried to do is appease the West with everything of value Nigeria possesses. ​The point is that Tinubu has not only proven his incapacity; he has also confirmed his ineligibility. Most Nigerians now chant “Tinubu must go”—especially the acutely hungry populace in the North, who are determined to see his back. ​But being the wily old fox that he is, he is staking everything.
He will throw in every resource, including the stability of the country. Some say the presidential election results have already been written, while Nigerian youths chant “never again” will anyone steal their votes and get away with it. The 2027 election is therefore a make-or-break moment for Nigeria. Enter Peter Obi—the X-factor, the cause célèbre, the third force, and Prometheus. Currently the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Party (NDC), Obi was the flag-bearer of the Labour Party (LP) in 2023.
He fundamentally altered polling arithmetic in Nigeria, causing a massive stir by officially scoring over six million votes—though he is widely believed to have won that election. Major election observers attested to irregularities, where the umpires at the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) colluded with the ruling party to “glitch” the system. ​Today, Obi’s teeming supporters say never again will their mandate be stolen. Regarding supporters, Nigeria’s political history has never witnessed the kind of organic followership the NDC candidate enjoys.
It is unequivocally a movement. ​Equally remarkable is that no other politician has exhibited the tireless drive he demonstrates. Possessed of unmatchable energy, he crisscrosses the expanse of the country like a breeze. Free of scandals and skeletons, he cut waste viciously as governor and saved money in government coffers while his peers carted away everything in sight, bequeathing massive debts. ​His rhetoric resonates because he speaks the mind of the people.
“A new Nigeria is possible,” he says. “I am not desperate to be president; I want to see a better Nigeria,” he declares as he moves across the country like a wizard on a broomstick. ​His charisma is electric. Even his political opponents spontaneously crave a selfie with him. Anywhere he goes in Nigeria—or abroad—crowds surge around him, recognizing the unmistakable hero of the moment. ​One cannot help but think it is Prometheus Unbound again in Nigeria.
Has the ancient Greek god, who liberated mankind by introducing fire to earth, returned on a visit? Obi may well be Nigeria’s own titan who can retrieve the nation from darkness—and this is no metaphor. Nigeria’s current power grid is a joke, operating at barely 5,000 MW. Obi insists he can fix the power crisis that has remained a jigsaw puzzle since independence. ​LAST LINE: Why The West Must Stand Up For Nigeria Now ​If the votes count on Election Day—January 16, 2027—it is likely that Obi will win the polls by unprecedented margins.
This is particularly true as he pairs with Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso, another politician who commands the organic support of his people in Kano and the broader Northwest. Not since the days of Mallam Aminu Kano have we seen a political figure like Dr. Kwankwaso. ​
This is where the attention of the West (specifically the UK and the US) is urgently needed. Britain and the United States of America must see to it that this election is free, fair, and credible. They must do this by any legitimate means possible—such as deploying robust, well-equipped teams of election observers on the ground. ​January 2027 portends a make-or-break election for Nigeria.
Put plainly, Nigeria may fail permanently if this election fails to produce credible outcomes. The consequences of a disintegrated Nigeria would be catastrophic for Africa and the entire world. ​Britain, in particular, must stop pussyfooting and step into the arena to help correct the fallout of the colonial setup it christened Nigeria. To think that Britain originally grouped distinct nations (like Germany, France and Turkey) under one flag and named it Nigeria was a masterstroke forged on the anvil of its vicious divide-and-rule strategy.
​It is indeed a miracle that Nigeria remains united today. Yet it still has a chance to emerge from the darkness and join the highway of modernity—if the world (namely the UK and US) helps ensure that a leader with common sense and a clear GPS can take the mantle of power next year. The West has nothing left to lose anymore.
Fossil fuels face an inevitable atrophy, and rapacious Western oil majors like Shell and Chevron are divesting from oil business post-haste. Hydrocarbons have become outdated and grimy in the age of algorithms. ​Helping Nigeria work will be the West’s last great public service to the world.
