By Ijeoma Agbafo
Nigeria is witnessing a gradual decline in birth rates even as its population continues to expand rapidly, reflecting a demographic transition that is unfolding across much of the world. While fertility rates remain among the highest globally, experts say changing social and economic conditions are contributing to smaller family sizes compared to previous decades.
Globally, fertility rates have fallen significantly over the past several decades, dropping from nearly five births per woman in the 1950s to about 2.2 births per woman in 2024. Many countries in Europe and Asia are now recording fertility levels below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, raising concerns about ageing populations, shrinking workforces, and long-term economic sustainability.
Nigeria’s experience differs from that of many developed nations but remains connected to the broader global trend. The country’s fertility rate has declined from about six births per woman in 1990 to fewer than five births per woman in recent years.
Demographers attribute the decline to increased urbanisation, improved access to education for girls, delayed marriage, and growing awareness of family planning methods. Despite progress in some health indicators, mortality remains a significant challenge. Nigeria’s crude death rate is estimated at between 10 and 11 deaths per 1,000 people, higher than the global average.
Although life expectancy has improved over the years and infant mortality has declined, thousands of deaths continue to result from preventable causes such as malaria, infectious diseases, maternal complications, malnutrition, and inadequate healthcare services.
Experts note that Nigeria’s youthful population structure has helped prevent the sharp increases in mortality being experienced by some ageing societies. However, persistent health challenges and disparities in access to medical care continue to affect outcomes, particularly in rural communities and parts of northern Nigeria where fertility rates remain higher and healthcare infrastructure is often weaker.
Public health and development experts warn that the country’s demographic future will depend largely on how effectively it addresses challenges such as youth unemployment, poverty, food security, and regional inequalities.
As nations around the world grapple with ageing populations and declining fertility, Nigeria faces a different challenge harnessing the potential of its growing population while ensuring that economic and social development keeps pace with demographic change.
