New tuberculosis vaccines expected to become available from 2029 could save up to 7.3 million lives globally between 2030 and 2050, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, has said. The alliance also projected that the vaccines could generate up to $135 billion in economic benefits across low- and middle-income countries.
Gavi described the potential vaccines as one of the most significant new immunisation tools in decades and a major development in the fight against TB, which remains the world’s deadliest infectious disease. It, however, urged governments and manufacturers to begin preparations early to ensure adequate, affordable and timely supplies when the vaccines become available.
The alliance estimated that demand from low- and middle-income countries could reach an average of 85 million vaccination courses annually, with demand likely to be higher during the initial years as countries with high TB burdens seek to extend protection to different age groups. Gavi’s Chief Executive Officer, Dr Sania Nishtar, said the vaccines would only achieve their potential if sufficient and predictable supplies could be secured for countries most affected by the disease.
Gavi said an estimated 10.7 million people developed TB globally in 2024, while about 1.2 million died from the disease. It noted that low- and middle-income countries carried most of the burden, with countries supported by Gavi accounting for an estimated 77 per cent of TB deaths, while the only currently licensed TB vaccine, Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), is more than 100 years old and provides limited long-term protection.
The alliance said the new vaccine candidates were being developed to prevent infectious pulmonary TB among adolescents and adults, potentially strengthening existing disease-control efforts. It identified inadequate financing, uncertain demand, limited manufacturing capacity and evidence gaps as challenges, while saying it was working with partners to address the risks and promote rapid and equitable access.
The 7.3 million projected lives saved was based on preliminary modelling by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, assuming 50 per cent vaccine efficacy against TB disease and immunity lasting 10 years.
