By AYOOLA OLAOLUWA
Nigeria’s capital market is bracing for its biggest single corporate listing on record as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos prepares to come to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), potentially adding tens of trillions of naira to the value of the equities market.
According to several financial and rating agencies, the refinery is presently valued at about $47 billion. With the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved offer price of N525 per share, the transaction could fundamentally alter the size, composition, and international profile of the Nigerian equities market.
It would be recalled that Dangote Refinery had on Friday, September 4, 2026, announced SEC’s approval of the planned sale of 4.1 billion ordinary shares of the refinery to the public. The sale is expected to raise about N2.15 trillion from the capital market.
At the offer price of N525 per share, the total market valuation of the refinery stands at approximately $47 billion. If fully subscribed, the listing will single-handedly increase market capitalisation on the NGX by an estimated 30 to 40 per cent.
Business Hallmark reports that the capital market wrapped up trading on September 4, with the NGX total market capitalisation rising to N159.56 trillion, after gaining N405.67 billion during the session.
The significance of the Dangote Refinery transaction, however, goes beyond the N2.15 trillion being raised. According to BH’s analysis, the money to be raised represents only the 4.1 billion ordinary shares being offered to investors. The entire value of the listed company will meanwhile impact the NGX, pushing capitalisation to over N220 trillion.
Based on available data from the Dangote Group and financial intelligence platforms, the share structure of the company currently stands at 120.13 billion shares. With the additional 4.1 billion shares being offered for sale, the refinery would have roughly 124.23 billion shares after the offer. At N525 per share, this represents an equity value of approximately N65.2 trillion.
Further analysis by BH indicated that if the N525 per share valuation is reflected fully in NGX’s market capitalisation, the exchange’s equities market could rise from N159.56 trillion to approximately N224.8 trillion.
This will represent an extraordinary increase of roughly N65 trillion in the size of the exchange from one corporate listing.
The transaction, therefore, will make Dangote Refinery the largest company on the NGX from day one and substantially change the ranking of Nigeria’s biggest listed companies.
The development comes at a, particularly, important moment for the NGX. According to the exchange, market capitalisation has risen from about N30 trillion in 2023 to around N160 trillion in 2026, while the All-Share Index has climbed from about 52,000 points to more than 244,000 points.
The refinery’s IPO, which is coming after a $2.5 billion private placement completed in July, will be coming into a market already enjoying a powerful bull run.
According to a stock market expert, Babajide Adeleye, the most important distinction investors and readers must make in assessing the Dangote Refinery IPO is between the amount being raised and the value being added to the stock exchange.
“The IPO is expected to raise about N2.15 trillion through the sale of 4.1 billion shares at N525 each. But that does not mean the refinery itself is worth N2.15 trillion. Rather, the offer gives investors a relatively small portion of the company while establishing a public-market price at which the entire company can be valued.
“With approximately 120.13 billion existing shares and 4.1 billion new shares, the total shares outstanding would be around 124.23 billion. At N525, that translates into an implied equity value of approximately N65.2 trillion.
“This is broadly consistent with recent reports putting the refinery’s valuation at between $40 billion and $50 billion, although Reuters’ latest report puts the valuation at about $47 billion.
“If the N2.15 trillion worth of new shares that’s been put up for sale are totally mopped up by investors as expected, that does not mean they are buying the entire company for N2.15 trillion. They are only acquiring a stake in an enterprise whose total market value could be more than N60 trillion. This is what could create the dramatic jump in NGX’s market capitalisation”, Adeleye explained.
A MARKET WITHIN A MARKET
At roughly N65 trillion, Dangote Refinery’s implied valuation would immediately place it among the dominant companies on the NGX.
It would also dwarf the market values of most listed Nigerian companies and could substantially alter sector weightings, index composition, and the concentration of market capitalisation.
NGX had reported that equity market capitalisation ended 2025 at N99.38 trillion. For a market whose equity capitalisation was only N99.38 trillion at the end of 2025, before expanding rapidly to N159.56 trillion at the end of trading on September 4, the addition of a company valued at more than N60 trillion is going to represent a major structural shift”, stakeholders argued.
The IPO itself could become the largest share offering ever undertaken on an African exchange.
For instance, MTN Nigeria’s 2019 IPO raised about $876 million and had been the largest public offering on the exchange before the planned Dangote transaction.
“The Dangote transaction, therefore, represents a multiple of the previous record in terms of both scale and strategic significance”, Adeleye added.
Many capital market operators, who spoke on the development, project Dangote Refinery value to hit the N1,000 mark per share by the end of December.
“The N525 price is just the opening amount. The moment the company is officially listed, you will start to see price movements, either upward or downward shifts.
“However, we are not expecting to see a downward price movement happening now, except there is a major negative occurrence like a fire outbreak or a terrorist attack on the plant.
“So, therefore, I see Dangote Refinery stocks climbing to N600 on the first day of listing. It will continue to be bullish until it cools after the market would have established it’s real value”, said Michael Alalade, a chartered stock broker.
Despite the initial positive reactions trailing the planned listing, some investors and analysts are concerned about the NGX’s capacity to absorb a N65 trillion behemoth.
“The central question will be whether the refinery can sustain a valuation of this magnitude through earnings, cash flows, dividends, and future growth. The plant has already reached its original 650,000 barrels-per-day capacity, even pushing it to 700,000 bpd.
“Refining is a capital-intensive business exposed to crude prices, refining margins, foreign exchange movements, product prices, logistics costs and geopolitical developments.
“A large market valuation at listing, therefore, does not automatically translate into sustained shareholder returns. So, the market will have to reconcile the refinery’s enormous valuation with its actual profitability”, Adeleye stated.
Optimists, however, are not foreseeing a major setback for the refinery capable of destabilizing the capital market.
“A strong post-listing performance will surely reinforce the argument that the refinery’s valuation is justified. On the other hand, a sharp decline, which I am not seeing, could trigger questions over whether the IPO price adequately reflected earnings and growth prospects.
“However, the decision of the refinery’s management to double capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day with the construction of an independent 700,000 bpd fuel production line besides the existing plant will surely absorb any future shock. All things being equal, I don’t see the two plants going down at the same time”, Orji added.
Meanwhile, the refinery listing may be only the beginning of a much larger transformation of Nigeria’s capital market.
The NGX had severally called for the listing of commercially viable government assets and leading Nigerian companies as part of its strategy to deepen capital formation.
During an August meeting with a top management of the NGX Group, President Bola Tinubu assured the team of his administration’s readiness to reform and list NNPCL on the exchange.
Together, the Dangote listing, with the proposes NNPC’s listing will potentially create another enormous energy-sector listing and a new phase for the country’s capital market.
