Fuel scarcity has resurfaced across the city, characterized by long queues and many filling stations shut down.
The current situation is driven by a “perfect storm” of global geopolitical tension and local pricing adjustments.
​The primary driver of this sudden scarcity is the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Following strikes on Iranian leadership and rising tensions in the Middle East, international crude oil prices surged past $80 per barrel overnight.
​Because the Dangote Refinery buys crude oil at international market rates, it has had to adjust its prices to match the rising cost of “replacement” crude.
On March 2, 2026, the refinery increased its ex-depot (gantry) price from ₦774 to ₦874 per litre—a ₦100 jump.
The refinery briefly suspended petrol loading at midnight on March 2 to recalibrate its pricing systems, which caused an immediate supply gap at depots.
Filling stations in Lagos are currently reacting to the new depot prices. Many outlets have adjusted their pump prices to between ₦950 and ₦980 per litre. Some analysts warn that if crude prices hit $90, pump prices could reach ₦1,000.
As is common in Lagos, several station owners have stopped selling (hoarding) to wait for “market clarity” or to avoid selling their current stock at a loss before restocking at the new, higher rates. This has led to the long queues you are seeing.
While the NNPC maintains that it has enough stock to last 40 days, the sudden price shift has caused private depot owners to pause sales. This “wait-and-see” approach by distributors often creates artificial scarcity on the streets even when the product is physically in the country.
The scarcity is expected to persist for a few more days until the new pricing structure is fully integrated across all retail outlets. Once stations feel “safe” selling at the ₦970+ range, the queues may shorten, though the cost of living and transport will likely rise in response.
