The Federal Government has confirmed an 18.9 percent shortfall in crude oil production for the 2025 fiscal year, raising fresh concerns about budget implementation and revenue projections.
According to figures released by the Ministry of Finance and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s crude oil output averaged 1.28 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first seven months of the year, against the 1.58 million bpd benchmark approved in the 2025 budget.
The decline, officials say, is attributed to persistent oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment in the upstream sector, despite ongoing efforts by security agencies and stakeholders to address the challenges.
Speaking on Tuesday in Abuja, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, admitted that the shortfall poses risks to revenue inflows but assured that government is working on alternative funding sources.
“We have recorded an 18.9 percent shortfall in projected oil output, which naturally affects revenue expectations. However, we are deploying fiscal buffers, ramping up non-oil revenues, and strengthening reforms to ensure the 2025 budget remains on track,” Edun said.
He noted that sectors such as taxation, customs duties, and digital economy levies have shown improved performance, helping to partially cushion the shortfall from oil revenues.
Industry analysts, however, warn that prolonged underperformance in oil production could undermine the government’s fiscal consolidation drive, particularly with debt servicing obligations consuming a significant portion of revenues.
Energy expert, Bala Zaka, told reporters that Nigeria must tackle crude theft “with urgency and sincerity” if it hopes to meet OPEC quotas and stabilize its economy.
“The budget is heavily dependent on oil revenues. Until the country secures its pipelines and creates a transparent environment for investors, shortfalls like this will continue to threaten fiscal stability,” he said.
Meanwhile, the Federal Government reiterated its commitment to achieving energy sector reforms, including attracting fresh investments through the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) framework and expanding gas monetization projects.
