By Mike Abbah
Nigeria’s ambitious revenue target of N36.35 trillion faces a major threat as the country’s Bonny Light crude oil fell by 10.6 per cent to $73.53 per barrel from $84.02 per barrel mid-January 2025, fueling fears over achievement of Federal Government’s 2025 revenue budget performance.
The 2025 N54.99 trillion budget is based on crude oil price benchmark of $75 per barrel, oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day, and revenue target of N36.35 trillion with 56 per cent coming from oil sales.
The fall in crude oil price represents a 6.6 per cent potential decline in FG’s oil revenue target, which is worsened by the oil output that is well below the budget benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day.
According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC, crude oil output stood at 1.737 million bpd in January 2025, up from 1.667 million bpd recorded in the preceding month of December 2024.
Reacting to the development, the Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, CPPE, Dr Muda Yusuf, argued that if energy prices fall, it has implications for our own revenue.
“It’s likely to negatively impact our oil revenue but it may be positive for businesses because a reduction in crude oil price or commodity or global oil price typically reduces the cost of petroleum products, including petrol, diesel and jet fuel,” he said.
Industry experts believe that besides impacting negatively on the execution of Nigeria’s 2025 budget, it should be noted that low crude oil price would culminate in low petroleum products prices as refiners’ costs of refining are expected to drop.
