The United States will elect its 47th president tomorrow, November 5, in an election that has been described by bookmakers as a presidential election unlike any other in United States history.
Democratic Party candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump and their campaigns are scrambling to win the polls in a contest each portrays as an existential moment for America.
Even after the astonishing blur of events the last few months, the electorate is divided down the middle, both nationally and in the seven battleground states expected to decide the winner today, although the closeness of the contest means it could take days for a winner to emerge.
Trump, 78, survived two assassination attempts, one by millimeters, just weeks after a jury in New York, the city whose tabloids first elevated him to national fame and notoriety made him the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a felony.
Harris, 60, was catapulted to the top of the Democratic ticket in July, giving her a chance to become the first woman to hold the world’s most powerful job after President Joe Biden, 81, had a disastrous debate performance and three weeks later dropped his reelection bid under pressure from his party.
For all of that turmoil, the contours of the race have changed little. Polls show Harris and Trump running neck and neck nationally and in the battleground states.
More than 77 million voters have already cast ballots, but today’s voting will provide a critical test of whether Vice President Harris’ or former President Trump’s campaign does the better job of driving supporters to the polls.
Voters, both Democrats and Republicans, have broken century-old records in the last two presidential elections, a sign of the passion that Trump stirs in both political parties.
In the final days of this campaign, both sides flooded social media sites and TV and radio stations with a last round of ad campaigns, and raced to knock on doors and make calls.
Harris’ campaign team believes the sheer size of its voter mobilization efforts is making a difference and says its volunteers knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors in each of the battleground states this weekend.
“We are feeling very good about where we are right now,” campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon told reporters yesterday.
The campaign says its internal data shows that undecided voters are breaking in their favour, particularly women in the battleground states, and that they see an increase in early voting among core parts of their coalition, including young voters and voters of color.
Trump’s campaign has its own in-house canvassing operation, but has effectively outsourced most of the work to outside super PACs, allied political groups that can raise and spend unlimited sums of money.
They have been more focused on contacting “low propensity” voters, or voters that often do not go to the polls, instead of appealing to middle-of-the-road voters who can flip to either side.
Many in this category are Trump supporters, but they are not normally reliable voters.
By cherry-picking the voters they want to contact, Trump and his team say they are sending door knockers to places where it makes a difference and being smart about spendings.
Key points to know about US polls
* When results of the presidential election will be known
The United States’ election results have sometimes been declared within hours of the polls closing, but this year’s close contest could mean a longer wait.
In some presidential races the victor has been named late on election night, or early the next morning.
In 2020, the election took place on Tuesday, 3 November. However, U.S. TV networks did not declare President Joe Biden winner until late Saturday, 7 November after the result in Pennsylvania became clearer.
This time, the tight race in many states could mean media outlets wait longer before projecting who has won.
Democrat Kamala Harris, the current vice-president, and Republican Donald Trump, the former president, have been running neck-and-neck for weeks.
Narrow victories could also mean recounts.
In key swing state Pennsylvania, for example, a state-wide recount would be required if there’s a half-percentage-point difference between the votes cast for the winner and loser.
In 2020, the margin was just over 1.1 percentage points. Legal challenges are also possible. More than 100 pre-election lawsuits have already been filed, including challenges to voter eligibility and voter roll management, by Republicans.
Other scenarios that could cause delays include any election-related disorder, particularly at polling locations.
On the other hand, vote-counting has been sped up in some areas including the crucial state of Michigan, and far fewer votes will be cast by mail than in the last election, which was during the Covid pandemic.
In other recent elections, voters have had a much shorter wait.
In 2016, when Trump won the presidency, he was declared the winner shortly before 03:00 EST (08:00 GMT) the day after the election.
In 2012, when Barack Obama secured a second term, his victory was projected before midnight on polling day itself.
However, the 2000 election between George W Bush and Al Gore was a notable exception.
The vote was held on 7 November, but the two campaigns went to war over a tight contest in Florida and the race was not decided until 12 December. The US Supreme Court voted to end the state’s recount process, which kept Bush in place as winner and handed him the White House.
The key states to watch
Across the country, the first polls will close at 18:00 EST (23:00 GMT) today evening and the last polls will close at 01:00 EST (06:00 GMT) early on Wednesday.
But this race is expected to come down to results from seven swing states which experts believe could plausibly be won by Harris or Trump.
These are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Polls close in Georgia and five other states, and partially in two more states at 19:00 EST (00:00 GMT)
This is also when US TV networks are likely to begin making their first calls of the night, in less competitive states like Kentucky.
Polls close across three states, including North Carolina at 19:00 EST (00:30 GMT).
Polls close in Pennsylvania, 15 other states and the District of Columbia, as well as partially in Michigan and four other states at 20:00 EST (01:00 GMT).
All remaining polls close in Michigan. Voting will also end in Arizona, Wisconsin and 12 other states at 21:00 EST (02:00 GMT).
Polls close across Nevada and two other states, and partially in two others at 22:00 EST (03:00 GMT).
Local election officials  sometimes appointed, sometimes elected, verify, process and count individual votes, in a process known as canvassing.
Verifying ballots includes comparing the number cast with the number of active voters; removing, unfolding and examining every single ballot for tears, stains or other damage; and documenting and investigating any inconsistencies.
Counting ballots involves feeding each one into electronic scanners that tabulate their results. Some circumstances require manual counts or double-checked tallies.
Every state and locality has rigorous rules about who can participate in the canvass, the order in which votes are processed and which parts are open to the public, including how partisan observers can monitor and intervene in vote-counting.
If the election results are challenged
Once every valid vote has been included in the final results, and after processes such as recounts have been completed, the election results are certified, first in local jurisdictions, then at the state-wide level.
A state executive, typically the governor, certifies what’s known as a slate of electors to represent their state in the electoral college. These electors meet in their respective states on 17 December to cast their votes and send them to Washington.
On 6 January, a new US Congress meets in a joint session to count the electoral votes, with the current vice-president presiding.
After the 2020 election, Trump refused to concede and rallied supporters to march on the US Capitol as Congress was meeting to certify Biden’s victory.
Even after the riot was cleared and members of Congress regrouped, 147 Republicans voted unsuccessfully to overturn Trump’s loss.
Electoral reforms since then have made it harder for lawmakers to object to certified results sent to them from individual states. They have also clarified that the vice-president has no power to unilaterally reject electoral votes.
Nevertheless, election watchers expect that efforts to delay certification of the 2024 vote could take place at the local and state level.
Trump, his running mate JD Vance and top Republican leaders on Capitol Hill have refused on several occasions to state unequivocally that they will accept the results if he loses.
Presidential inauguration
The president-elect will begin their term in office after being inaugurated on Monday, 20 January 2025, in the grounds of the US Capitol complex.
It will be the 60th presidential inauguration in US history.
The event will see the new president sworn in on a pledge to uphold the Constitution and then deliver their inaugural address.
AFP/NAN
