By Emmanuel Gandu
I am not in support of a Jonathan second missionary journey to Asso Rock, the Nigerian version of the American White House. This is because of the following reasons :
1. He is already a respected national and international personality and therefore should remain as a statesman instead of dragging his integrity in the murky and muddy waters of Nigerian politics.
2. Jonathan does not any longer have the resources to prosecute a presidential campaign. Jonathan was drafted from Bayelsa to become the vice to Yar’Aduwa by Olusegun Obasanjo. When Yar’Aduwa died Jonathan benefitted by ascending to the presidency without a contest. He never contested in 2015 using his personal resources because he was president at the time.
3. Goodluck Jonathan is a weakling, feeble minded, weak-willed and a man afraid to take decision and face a situation headlong. If not a weak Jonathan, which president would conduct a National Conference where 500 delegates drawn from across Nigeria involved in a five months deliberations about the political future of Nigeria where they came up with the most acceptable “Report of 2014 Conference” without presidential approval and implementation.? If Jonathan had, Muhammadu Buhari nor any other president for that matter would not have had the guts to abandon that document to the dust bin of history.
4. Tinubu is a political maverick, a master strategist, and a guru in the game. He has been in the trenches even during the Babangida/Abacha military Junta years. I am yet to see that Nigerian that will defeat Tinubu in 2027. Even if you put 10 Jonathans on the line, Bola Tinubu will crush them to fall like a pack of cards.
5. The incumbency factor will work in favour of Tinubu, afterall, he has the military, police, INEC, Judiciary, and of course the National Assembly. Like Nigerians would say, he who pays the piper dictates the tune.
6. Peter Obi and the Obidient movement stands a better chance of posing a credible opposition to Tinubu. Unfortunately for Jonathan a good chunk of the “cult following” Obedients votes will never be given to Jonathan since they don’t see Jonathan as a political substitute for Obi.
7. The Wike factor in Rivers and Bayelsa states will be a strong force of support for Tinubu but not Jonathan.
8. The Igbo and Delta support for Tinubu is now stronger than ever before.
9. Akwa Ibom and Cross River are already in the pocket of Senate president Godswill Akpabio for onward delivery to Tinubu.
10. Does Bayelsa have any voting population power to ensure a Jonathan factor in the Niger Delta.?
11. The Hausa North will always put their mouth where the money is, afterall, they abandoned Jonathan even as a sitting president in 2015. Ironically, some of them are the same people that worked against Jonathan in 2015. Why the sudden loyalty to Jonathan now?
12. David Mark is no longer of any political relevance in Benue state. Secretary to Federal Government George Akume will team up with the Benue Catholic Rev. Fr. Governor to send prayer emissaries to “Jah” in the heavens above to deliver the Middle Belt to Tinubu despite the Fulani herdsmen killings in the region.
13. The North central/Middle Belt should realise that a Jonathan or any other Christian president in 2027 may block their chances of demanding for the zoning of the presidency to the Christian North after 2027.
14. Kano and Kaduna states are for Tinubu. Deputy Senate president Barau is from Kano while House of Representatives speaker Tajudeeen Abbas is from Zaria in Kaduna state.
15. Afterall, Southern Kaduna have since been singing “On your mandate” since Tinubu emancipated them from the shackles of decades of Neglect. The icing on the Tinubu baked cake for Southern Kaduna was when Governor Uba Sani waved the political magic wand over Southern Kaduna that had proved elusive to stubborn and genocidal El Rufai from 2015 to 2023.
16. Finally, the entire South West will not abandon their “Emi lo kan” son midway in the ocean of bliss.
With this analysis, I don’t see any hope for Jonathan winning the presidency in 2027.
Peace 🙏
30/9/2025
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