Peter Obi is politically naive. His willingness to accept a single term of 4 years was a bait to test his seriousness over his presidential bid.
Now that he has shown his hand, Abubakar Atuku has come out with guns blazing to lay claim to the ADC presidential ticket.
While APC is consolidating through decampees from PDP and Labour, expect ADC to also gain from further PDP and Labour haemorrhage.
At the end of the day, none of PDP, ADC, or Labour will be in a position to challenge APC in 2027 because they will fragment the opposition votes.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s strategy for 2027 is straightforward, making Labour and PDP unviable as platforms for a strong presidential bid by Peter Obi and Abubakar Atiku, and thus forcing them to a new political party.
Even with Peter Obi as its presidential candidate, ADC cannot between now and 2027 put in place the political structures and people required to win a general election.
Abubakar Atiku had his opportunity to become president in 2003 but gave it up, effectively sealing his mercantile status and closing the door he had to Aso Rock Villa.
As for Peter Obi, the issue remains what level of sacrifice he is ready to make to get into Aso Rock Villa, and looking at how he responded to the recent demolishing of his brother’s house in Lagos, he is not yet ready for the top job.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is a political strategist extraordinaire, and in other developed climes would be the subject of political scholarly research and analysis.
He is the public face of a massive political organisation that took decades and tens of trillions of naira to put together, refine, and position, and is today now a political machine.
It has been built on mentoring, loyalty, collaboration, adaptability, sacrifices, endurance, resilience, respect for others, decisiviness, accommodation, and honed over 26 years in the Lagos laboratory.
Obafemi Awolowo was a man of ideas and grand vision, but his political field game is elementary when compared to that of PBAT, and no current living Nigerian politician can match not to talk of defeat his political structure.
There is no Nigerian politician who is currently able or willing to lead Nigerian voters through the level of sacrifices required to secure the keys to Aso Rock Villa.
Olusegun Obasanjo, Shehu Musa Yar’aua, and Goodluck Jonathan were not looking for the presidency, but it came to them all the same. Muhammadu Buhari had given up on his presidential ambitions for 2015 after 3 previous failed attempts before PBAT convinced him to try again.
PBAT not only convinced Buhari to run again in 2015 but put his political machinery at Buhari’s disposal in both 2015 and 2019 elections, and hence could declare Emilokon in 2023 elections.
What are Peter Obi or Abubakar Atiku’s declarations? What levels of personal sacrifices have they endured or sacrifices undertaken for others that will enable them to declare Emilokon as the 2027 election preparations gather speed?
As things stand, only PBAT is on the political field with his reforms – subsidy removal, forex libralization, investment and tax reforms, oil and gas reforms, infrastructure building, and civil service reforms are loading.
There are now student loans for those in tertiary institutions and a renewed emphasis on vocational training, with stipends being paid to those who take up these opportunities in vocational training schools.
Insecurity is still a challenge, but inflation is falling, especially the price of foodstuff, as fuel prices stabilise. PBAT is no saint, but anyone hoping to unseat him had better come with their A-game, especially their own Emilokon declaration.
