USA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND THE FUNCTIONALITY OF THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE : Any similarities and lessons for Nigeria’s delegates and party primaries?

November 5, 2024
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By Emmanuel Gandu

INTRODUCTION
The United States of America is generally believed and accepted as the best symbol of democracy and of democratic institutions in the world. Little wonder the entire universe pays particular attention to the elections in the USA – thanks to the media. Since Nigeria’s democracy is modelled after that of the USA, the efforts in this discourse is to highlight the lessons that could be drawn from the conduct of past American presidential elections, especially with particular focus on their Electoral College system.

WHAT IS THIS ELECTORAL COLLEGE ?
An electoral college is a set of electors who are selected to elect a candidate to the office of the president of the United States of America.
Americans periodically vote candidates called “electors” in their state who are supporting the candidate they want to become president.
This process is called the “electoral college”
The word “college” translates to a large group of people who have the job of choosing the president of the USA.

HOW SIMILAR IS THIS ELECTORAL COLLEGE TO THE DELEGATES SYSTEM IN NIGERIA ? – ANY LESSONS ?
This electoral college in America is similar or can be likened to the Nigerian “party delegates” in each state of the federation who vote for the governorship candidate during the state primaries of their party, or the presidential primaries to determine the candidate to fly the flag of the party at the presidential election in Nigeria.
The only difference is that the American type electoral college system is not practiced in Nigeria during the nationwide party presidential election in Nigeria.
The nearest is the Nigerian delegates system of the primaries.
Another point of note is that Nigeria is not yet ripe for this sophisticated system. Besides, Nigeria’s political system is too corrupt especially the emergence of money bags. It will probably be difficult for the application of the American style Electoral College in Nigeria.

HOW THE AMERICAN ELECTORAL COLLEGE SYSTEM WORKS
The candidate who wins a state’s popular vote typically earns the support of that state’s electors, who are chosen by state legislatures. Each state is allocated a different number of electors based on the population census results.
Winning 270 electoral votes or more puts a presidential candidate in the White House. And because some states carry more electors than others, it is possible and perfectly legitimate for a candidate to lose the popular vote but still win the election. That’s why presidential candidates typically focus on winning states like Texas (38 electoral votes), Florida (29 electoral votes, and New York (29 electoral votes) as opposed to Vermont, Wyoming or Alaska, which all have just three electoral votes. Winning three states can mean 96 electoral votes or just nine.

INTERESTING INCIDENTS OF ELECTORAL COLLEGE OF THE PAST
Out of the last past 45 presidential contests, five have produced Presidents and commanders-in-chief who did not win the majority of the popular vote, including (1) George W. Bush in 2000. (2) In 2016, Donald Trump lost the national popular vote to Democrat Hillary Clinton by 2.87 million votes, but secured 304 electoral votes to her 227. (3) The 2020 election brought up some surprises about the functionality of the electoral college.

WHY ARE THERE 538 ELECTORS ?
There is one elector for every seat in Congress, ie 100 senators and 435 representatives — plus three for the unrepresented District of Columbia.
This makes up the total number of 538 electors.

HOW ARE THESE ELECTORS SPREAD AMONG AMERICA’S 50 STATES ?
Here, in descending order, is the number of electors pledged by each state:
55: California
38: Texas
29: Florida, New York
20: Illinois, Pennsylvania
18: Ohio
16: Georgia, Michigan
15: North Carolina
14: New Jersey
13: Virginia
12: Washington
11: Arizona, Indiana, Massachusetts, Tennessee
10: Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin
9: Alabama, Colorado, South Carolina
8: Kentucky, Louisiana
7: Connecticut, Oklahoma, Oregon
6: Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Nevada, Utah
5: Nebraska, New Mexico, West Virginia
4: Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island
3: Alaska, Delaware, D.C., Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Wyoming
Total: 538.

WHY IS THERE AN ELECTORAL COLLEGE ?
This is meant to ensure equity and fare representation for every American, state, or region to participate in choosing the president of the USA.
It is to ensure that no single populous state or region would use the advantage of their overwhelming numerical population to vote the candidate of their place into the White House without regard to the other parts of the country with smaller population.

BUT STATES WITH BIG POPULATION DECIDE WHO WINS
Yes they do decide. Any candidate who wins the majority vote in any of the 8 big (swing) states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin not only automatically takes hold of all the electoral votes meant for that state, but also stands a big chance of winning the election.
And the presidential candidate to get to the threshold of the 270 electoral votes becomes the president of America.
(This is what you would refer to as the finish line in sports). Interesting.

WHEN DOES THE SELECTION FOR MEMBERS OF THIS ELECTORAL COLLEGE TAKE PLACE ?
They always meet the Monday after the second Wednesday in December following the conclusion of that year’s November election.
Electors are “pledged” to a presidential ticket based on the results of the popular vote in each state or district.

CAN NIGERIA COPY THIS AMERICAN ELECTORAL COLLEGE SYSTEM ?
No, not in the near future. Nigeria can adapt to this system only after an amendment of the 1999 constitution.
Additionally, the Electoral Act will have to be amended.
Another bottle neck may be the activities of the money bags who have monetized the democratic system of the country.
Besides, there are calls already for the abandonment of the “delegates” system in the party primaries.

CONCLUSION
Electoral college system of USA, Delegates system of Nigeria, Primaries system of Nigeria, 25% votes requirement in FCT are all measures of checks and balances enshrined in the constitutions and the electoral laws of USA and Nigeria respectively in order to ensure free, fair, and credible elections.
With Donald Trump currently seeking a return to the White House, it remains to be seen whether he will accept the results of the ELECTORAL COLLEGE SYSTEM if Kamala Harris gets to the finish line of 270 delegates or not. Nigeria and indeed the whole world is watching with keen attention.
Surely, Nigeria definitely have some lessons to learn from the United States of America, the best and biggest democracy in the universe.

Peace 🙏
4/11/2024

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