The political landscape in northern Nigeria is heating up as the build-up to the 2027 presidential election underscores a sharp contest over a prized political inheritance: Muhammadu Buhari’s once-invincible northern bloc.
Though Buhari is no longer in office, his legacy (and his network of loyalists, particularly from his former platform, the Congress for Progressive Change – CPC) remains a potent political force. Two figures in particular are contending for “ownership” of that legacy — President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, now in a re-arranged opposition alliance.
Recently, several leading figures of the old CPC have quietly shifted their allegiance toward Atiku and his platform, the ADC (African Democratic Congress), saying they feel the APC under Tinubu has drifted from the values they associated with Buhari.
These loyalty shifts are more than symbolic. They signal serious dissatisfaction in parts of the North with the APC’s current leadership, especially around issues of representation and perceived neglect.
Tinubu has not been idle. In a strategic move, he recently visited Kaduna – a center in Buhari’s home territory – and also paid his respects to the late former President’s family. Observers see this as an attempt to retain the emotional and symbolic ties that bind Buhari’s base.
His administration has also repeatedly emphasized the strength of APC’s grassroots structures in the North. Ministers and party loyalists have insisted that despite defections, the party’s network in the North remains robust and that it is well placed to control the bloc in 2027.
On the opposition side, Atiku’s efforts have focused on formalizing alliances with disaffected Buhari loyalists. The defection of former CPC members gives Atiku a renewed claim to represent the hopes (or frustrations) of those who once saw Buhari as their standard bearer.
He isn’t just relying on political symbolism; he has called for mobilization ahead of voter registration deadlines, urging that allegiance be transformed into structure and – crucially – votes.
Legacy and Identity: For many northern voters and political elites, Buhari’s name still carries weight. Questions of who best preserves or embodies Buhari’s values – particularly his CPC roots, his perceived integrity, his stance on security – are central.
Representation and Appointments: Some northern groups have openly criticized Tinubu’s government for allegedly favoring the Southwest in key public service appointments. Atiku has used these criticisms to argue that the North is being sidelined.
Security and Governance: Insecurity remains a major concern in northern states. Election results and political sentiment suggest many Northerners are seeking a leadership approach that more directly addresses banditry, militant attacks, and general lawlessness. Atiku has been making the case that his leadership would better confront these challenges.
Electoral Mobilisation: With voter registration ongoing, both sides recognize that symbolic gestures are only useful if followed by real grassroots organizing. Atiku’s coalition is pushing to translate defections and loyalty into votes; Tinubu is trying to shore up loyalty and minimize erosion of APC’s northern support.
For Tinubu and the APC, losing parts of Buhari’s traditional base would damage their electoral calculus in the North, potentially turning once “safe” states into competitive or even opposition-leaning battlegrounds.
For Atiku (and his coalition), gaining a strong foothold among Buhari loyalists could shift the narrative in his favor as a legitimate heir to the northern bloc, improving his chances in 2027.
For northern voters, the choice is not just between personalities but between competing visions of governance, security, inclusion, and how well their region will be represented.
The coming months will likely be decisive:
How strong will defections continue to be, especially among key power brokers in the North formerly aligned with Buhari?
Will Tinubu be able to re-assure northern voters that APC remains their best vehicle, both symbolically and materially (i.e. via appointments, policies, security)?
Can Atiku’s coalition convert faith into structure and votes – not just rhetoric?
Will issues like zoning (rotation of presidency), regional equity, and federal character dominate voter concerns enough to reshape party loyalty?
The battle for Buhari’s northern bloc is not merely about prestige or symbolism: it is rapidly becoming a central axis of the 2027 political contest. As loyalties shift, and as both Tinubu and Atiku make their pitches, the outcome in the North could well determine who holds the presidency next.
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