The recent flurry of economic reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu—marked by the aggressive privatization of public assets including federal universities, refineries, and major economic institutions—raises critical questions about intent, national interest, and the long-term political vision behind these moves. While many are debating the economic merits of these policies, a deeper, strategic interpretation links them to a possible Systematic Succession Policy aimed at economic consolidation and political secession: an Oodua Republic agenda under the cloak of economic liberalization.
I. The Policy Actions: A Pattern Beyond Coincidence
The pattern is too coordinated to be accidental:
Sales of Critical National Assets:
Refineries (Port Harcourt, Warri, Kaduna) are being outsourced or sold.
Airports and seaports are reportedly undergoing PPP or outright concession models.
Power distribution and transmission infrastructure is being transferred to private hands.
Privatization or commercialization efforts are now touching federal universities, undermining national access to education.
Concentration of Economic Power in Lagos/Yoruba Interests:
Major economic institutions are being steered to Lagos: customs modernization, ports automation, fintech headquarters, and trade policy centralization.
Appointments and contracts increasingly favor those from the South-West, sidelining federal character.
Institutions like NNPC, CBN, FIRS, FAAN, and NSIA are undergoing reforms or relocations that gradually diminish Northern economic influence.
II. The Underlying Agenda: Toward Economic Secession?
While the government promotes these moves as efficiency-driven, critics argue that this reflects a systematic strategy to strip the Nigerian federation of its shared assets, concentrating economic infrastructure and wealth in the South-West, especially Lagos.
This policy trajectory supports two key outcomes:
1. Neutralization of Federal Economic Control:
By selling off or weakening national assets, Tinubu’s government could be engineering a post-federalist economic reality where the Nigerian State owns nothing and controls little—making a future breakup or regional autonomy less complex and less contentious.
2. Empowerment of a Proto-Oodua Republic:
The economic nerve center—ports, telecoms, banks, energy distribution, customs revenue, and tax control—is being firmly planted in the Yoruba heartland. When political succession arises or national disintegration becomes real, the South-West would have the infrastructure, assets, and global economic linkages to function independently.
III. Strategic Implications for Nigeria
Undermining National Unity:
Selling national assets without a strong federal consensus sends a dangerous signal. It deprives Nigeria of strategic economic leverage and undermines the social contract, especially for regions that feel increasingly marginalized.
Ethnic Economic Domination:
The monopolization of post-privatization entities by cronies and kinsmen entrenches ethnic capitalism, widening the inequality gap and deepening regional suspicion.
Weakening Northern Bargaining Power:
With no economic leverage, the North could become perpetually dependent or easily expendable in any post-2027 political realignment.
IV. Lessons from History and Regional Movements
Like the Biafran secession attempt in the 1960s, today’s strategy appears more calculated, non-militaristic, and economically premeditated. Rather than launching a frontal separatist movement, President Tinubu’s government seems to be using legal frameworks and policy decisions to lay the foundation for a soft exit from the federation—through wealth accumulation, asset control, and eventual cultural-political mobilization.
V. Recommendations and Counter-Strategy
To preserve the federal structure and ensure equity:
1. Immediate Suspension of Public Asset Sales pending a national conference and regional consultation.
2. Rebalancing of Economic Appointments and institution relocations to reflect true federal character.
3. Establishment of a National Economic Intelligence Panel to audit privatizations from 2023.
4. Constitutional Restructuring, not silent disintegration, to address long-standing regional grievances and promote a fairer revenue-sharing formula.
Conclusion: “Systematic Succession” or Silent Secession?
The policies of the Tinubu administration must be scrutinized not only for their economic impact but also for their geopolitical and nationalist implications. If unchecked, they risk fostering a future where Nigeria is economically hollowed out, politically fractured, and regionally enslaved to the dominance of one bloc.
This is not just a matter of privatization. It is a question of national survival.
Dahiru Yusuf Yabo
Political & Security Analyst
13th July 2025
