The South West Agenda for Asiwaju (SWAGA), a prominent pro-Tinubu advocacy group led by Senator Dayo Adeyeye, has been vocal in defending President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms. Their central argument is that the administration’s “bold” decisions primarily the removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of the exchange rate interrupted a terminal decline toward national insolvency.
​SWAGA and other government allies (such as the Independent Media and Policy Initiative, IMPI) argue that by May 2023, Nigeria was in a “fiscal death spiral.” They cite several key metrics as evidence.
Before the reforms, Nigeria was reportedly spending upwards of 97% of its revenue on debt servicing. The fuel subsidy was costing the federation over $84 billion historically, a figure many proponents argue was funded by heavy borrowing rather than earned income.
SWAGA claims that many state governments were on the verge of being unable to pay salaries because the subsidy was “eating” the Federation Account (FAAC) allocations before they could be distributed.
​The defense of the subsidy removal focuses on the transition from “consumption to production”. Following the removal, FAAC distributions to federal, state, and local governments surged. For example, in the first 11 months of 2025, the three tiers of government shared over ₦33 trillion, a significant increase attributed to the removal of the subsidy drain.
Proponents argue that the subsidy was effectively subsidizing the entire West African sub-region, as cheap Nigerian fuel was being smuggled across borders, benefiting “oil oligarchs” rather than the Nigerian public.
The administration claims that the billions saved are being redirected into critical projects, including the 40 road projects and the Student Loan Scheme.
​While SWAGA presents the reforms as a success, the reality on the ground remains a subject of intense debate. According to recent reports and fiscal data. There are signs of economic stabilization. Headline inflation reportedly fell to 15.10% in January 2026 after peaking in late 2024.
Despite the savings, debt servicing remains a massive challenge. In the 2026 budget, debt servicing is projected at ₦15.52 trillion, which still exceeds the combined allocations for health, education, and security.
While the macro-economic “bankruptcy” may
have been averted in technical terms, many Nigerians continue to struggle with the high cost of living triggered by the initial price shocks of 2023 and 2024.
​”Nigeria has turned the corner.” This is the recurring theme from SWAGA and President Tinubu himself. They view the hardships of the last two years as the “necessary surgery” required to save a patient (the economy) that was otherwise destined for a total collapse.
