President Tinubu is leveraging the Africa Forward Summit (currently taking place in Nairobi, Kenya) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) framework to reduce Nigeria’s reliance on raw material exports and advocate support for Nigeria’s bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council (UNSC) has moved from a quiet aspiration to a loud, formal diplomatic campaign.
The President’s envoy recently stated at the AU Summit that “a Security Council without a permanent African voice is a relic of the past.” Nigeria argues that as Africa’s most populous nation and one of its largest economies, it is the natural candidate.
Nigeria is highlighting its history of intervention in West African conflicts (via ECOMOG) and its consistent contribution to UN peacekeeping missions to prove it can handle the security responsibilities that come with a permanent seat.
This is the most difficult hurdle. Under the Ezulwini Consensus, Africa is technically asking for two permanent seats. Nigeria is currently lobbying to ensure that if the UN expands, Nigeria not just South Africa or Egypt, is the consensus pick for the first seat.
Nigeria is essentially telling the rest of the continent; “We will provide the economic engine and the security umbrella for Africa, but we need your unified vote to represent our collective interests in New York.”
South Africa and Egypt have equally compelling cases, and the AU has yet to formally “rank” its candidates.
Opponents argue that the President should focus on domestic inflation and internal security before spending significant political capital on global prestige.
Despite the rhetoric, the five permanent members of the UNSC (P5) remain hesitant to dilute their power by adding new members with veto authority.
