As non-state actors encircle Nigeria like vultures and inflict maximum punishment, threatening to overrun her, President Bola Tinubu hurriedly proclaimed emergency. If you thought he was going to unveil a ground breaking strategy to clear out the miscreants in 90 days, then you’re a denizen of Mars.
It all turned out to be a damp squib. It was yet another photo opportunity with security chiefs during which the president was caught on camera dozing off on them. The report emanating from the so-called security meeting was even more underwhelming: The president declared an emergency on security matters in Nigeria.
And what does that mean? He directed massive recruitment into the armed forces and the police, that’s it! Ha, at a time of existential threat on her very sovereignty? A time the country is on the verge of being overrun by terrorists? CLEARLY A CAPACITY ISSUE: Again and again, President Tinubu has proven that he truly lacks the requisite capacity to run Nigeria.
At a time a General and his troops were ambushed and slaughtered by terrorists. At a time the federal government is so prostrate, it had to shut down schools in response to bandits invading schools across the Northern zone and herding hundreds of pupils into the depths of the forest.
As terror and banditry have become pervasive, making Nigeria look like a broken giant in the sun, you would expect a president to talk tough, to enunciate flat-out strategies and to envision final closure initiatives to a long-running madness. Zilch. Nothing. Ineptitude.
Void. These are all we got from President Tinubu’s declaration of emergency. US-NIG JOINT WORKING GROUP TO THE RESCUE? Thank goodness, the Trump mandate is yielding fruits already.
Recall that President Donald Trump of the US, had in October warned about genocide against Christians in Nigeria promising to visit, ‘gun blazing’ to take out the bad guys if President Tinubu continues to doodle over the matter.
We hear a joint working group is coming up shortly. Some highlights are: deeper intelligence cooperation, accelerated processing of requests for defence equipment, scale up of assistance across fronts, enhanced technical backing for early warning and rapid response and humanitarian support for communities in distress, especially in the middle belt that the Jihadists have rendered a tragedy zone.
PUSHING BACK ISIS AND CRAZY JIHADISTS: This is good news. This is indeed heartwarming; probably the best talk we’ve heard in Nigeria about insecurity for a long time. There’s no doubt that the ISIS beasts troubling countries like Syria, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, to name a few, had marked Nigeria for taking.
For the past 15 years, since they stepped into Nigeria through Borno (Lake Chad axis), they have continued to entrench and grow in strength and capacity. From the northeast to the northwest of Nigeria, they come in different names and different guises: Boko Haram, ISIS, ISWAP, Al Quaeda, Lakurawa, etc.
As it is, if we don’t get support in the form of the US-NIG JWG, the north of Nigeria would be balkanised and taken over by various terror/jihadi groups before 2027. Katsina is almost gone!
North central would become the next battlefield and of course, we know their next destination: Igbo and Yoruba lands with the minorities as collateral spoils of war.
All of this is likely to happen in the next five years.
EXPRESSO avers that Nigeria could be overrun in five years if Tinubu remains in power. We don’t need any special intelligence to predict this. The reasons are that he is utterly incompetent, which is the result of incapacity and corruption. Hardly anything is getting done under his watch in nearly three years.
Not even ambassadorial nominations can be got right. In fact, both the president and the presidency are worse than poor. In countries where the presidency is manned by great minds, such rabble-rousers as we have on the list would never have made it. It’s most disgraceful to have Reno and Fani-Kayode heading Nigeria’s missions anywhere.
NOW THAT THE US IS HERE, WHAT TINUBU MAY DO: Nigeria needs utmost tact in embracing and engaging with the US.
President Tinubu must consider some interventionist, short and long term measures.
SUGGESTED SHORT TERM STEPS:
>Set up EMERGENCY WAR ROOM, EWR. Call it say, Operation 90 Days.
>Pick the very best living Nigeria military mind to head it (must be a serving or retired military general).
>The EWR team of not more than a dozen will engage with and direct the US-NIG JWG.
>Overriding objective of the EWR is to clear out all active terrorists from Nigeria in 90 days.
>The EWR will map out the hot spots and create forward commands.
>Unravel and arrest all the terror financiers and supporters. >Determine sources of arms.
>In collaboration with the US-NIG JWG deploy more intelligence and technology to pre-empt and rout.
>The head of EWR would directly give weekly updates to the nation.
LONG-TERM STEPS:
>Government must deal with the underlying causes of this social upheaval. >Ban grazing giving a one-year moratorium.
>Set up model ranches to help fast track the transition.
>Outlaw the almajiri learning system.
>Outlaw Sharia law in the northern states
>Recruitment into the military and police should be made a routine and ongoing exercise, etc.
FINALLY ANALYSIS: Without deigning to teach professional war tacticians their job, these are just pointers to what is possible.
US-NIG JWG STRATEGY TEAM: And lest we forget, Nigeria must have an EMERGENCY STRATEGY THINK TANK(EST), to be domiciled in Aso Rock, this team will drive our collaboration with the US. They are to be made up of our best of the best minds.
They are to run through the frameworks, the objectives, directive principles, timelines, expectations, results, etc. Nigeria must not go blindfolded into a “love affair” with the US. We must go with our very best minds in strategy and bilateral cooperations. We must protect our sovereignty.
The ultimate point is that Nigeria is at the tipping point right now. If we fail to act now and quick, Nigeria will sooner fall into the hands of murderous Jihadists.
Then she would be classified among the “axis of evil” states.
Osuji was a former newspaper editor and columnist.
Feedback: steve.osuji@gmail.com
