By Emmanuel Gandu
INTRODUCTION
The evolution of Nigeria from 1800’s to 1849, the amalgamation of Northern and Southern Protectorates by the British colonial government supervised by Governor Fredrick Lugard in January 1914, to the granting of self rule of independence on October 1st 1960, and to today is all been a bag of mixed grill of more than 176 years of transformational impact on Nigeria.
More to that, it has been a whole lot of fruitless years of search for nationhood, wasted years of boom, gloomy years of doom, and a turbulence towards the precipice.
This discourse is an attempt to contribute to the narrative of the good, the bad and the ugly side of Nigeria’s developmental journey.
A jouney marred and defined by the inconsistencies and marriage of strange regional bedfellows in the name of amalgamation. A journey of the disintegration of the first and second republics. A journey of series of military interregnum. A journey stained by the blood of millions of Nigerians in a 30 month civil war from 1967 to 1970 which left unhealed scars even as at today. A journey accompanied by vices of religious accrimony between Muslims and Christians, ethnicity and nepotism, terrorism and insecurity. A journey of economic boom and doom. A journey that earns for Nigeria the notoriety of being referred to as a “fantastically corrupt” country. A journey of a Nigeria that is so rich yet while her citizens wallow in abject poverty.
A journey that put Nigerians in a fruitless search for nationhood.
PLANS/STRATEGIES FROM DOOM TO BOOM
The American experience:
“In his first year in office, president Barrack Obama pulled us back from the brink of the Great Depression and worked to lay a new foundation from economic crisis to economic growth.
The president identified three key strategies to build that lasting prosperity : innovation, investment, and education.” – Tom Vilsack
The Marshall plan :
After the second world war Europe was left in economic shambles. Hunger, deprivation, depression, collapse of the means of production, a weakened citizenry, a ravaged and demoralized army.
In an effort to salvage this precarious economic crisis situation, the United States of America came to the rescue of Western Europe with the ‘Marshall Plan’.
The aid package legislation was enacted in 1948 to provide foreign aid to Western European countries. In that package the US transferred $13.3 billion in economic recovery programmes to the Western European economies.
Funds were directed towards revitalization of the agricultural sector, industries were revived and production came up to appreciable levels, and exportation of goods and services resumed.
Since then, Western Europe have been the leading world economic block after the US.
Interestingly and curiously too, the concept of ‘economic crisis’ first entered the social sciences literature in the 1960’s.
The Nigerian National Development Plans :
As found in many policy plans/documents since independence, efforts towards economic boom and poverty alliviation have been part of the focus of government policy. To achieve these objectives, successive administrations have come up with several of such policies.
Some of them include the following :
National Development Plans 1 – 5 of 1961 – 1985.
National Accelerated Food Production Programme (NAFPP) launched in 1972 by the General Yakubu Gowon administration.
Operation Feed the Nation (OFN), an agricultural initiative launched in 1976 by the military government of General Olusegun Obasanjo to achieve food self-sufficiency and reduce dependence on food imports.
Green Revolution programme was an initiative of the Alhaji Shehu Aliyu Shagari government who took over from General Obasanjo in 1979. President Shagari replaced Obasanjo’s OFN with his Green Revolution.
According to Oyetoye (1983) in ‘Ife journal of Agriculture’ vol. 5 no.1. 1983, “Green Revolution was meant to solve the problems of the worsening food situation and the ailing agricultural sector in Nigeria.”
Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) was introduced in Nigeria by the General Ibrahim Babangida regime in 1986.
Moesinger (2023) asserts that SAP was implemented in Nigeria as an attempt to diversify the economy away from petroleum and reverse the trend toward industrialization.
According to president Babangida administration, SAP was aimed to improve the standard of living of the people through enhanced income and generation of employment opportunities.
But in reality, the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) is a loan package from the World Bank or International Monetary Fund (IMF) that requires borrowing countries to implement free – market economic reforms.
However, whether SAP enhanced the lives of Nigerians or sapped Nigerians dry is a story for another day.
Better Life Programme for Women, an initiative of Mrs. Mariam Babangida, the wife of then head of state General Ibrahim Babangida.
The programme was launched in 1987 to uplift the economic status of women in general and those of the rural areas in particular – ( CBN Document 1990 )
Family Support Programme (FSP).
By the time General Sani Abacha took over government in 1993 his wife Mariam Abacha replaced Mariam Babangida’s Better Life Programme for rural women (BLP) with her own Family Support Programme (FSP).
While BLP was only for women, FSP was for the entire family both in rural and urban areas.
Nationa Souvereign Conference.
This was the brain child of the government of president GoodLuck Ebele Jonathan.
The conference was convocked in 2014. It was a confab that had 500 delegates drawn from across Nigeria. The delegates were involved in a 5 month long deliberations with recommendations meant to chart the way forward for Nigeria on several areas of national life including political, economic, restructuring, federalism, devolution of power, state creation, finance and revenue, state police, religion, constitution and such other issues of reforms that Nigerians have been yearning for.
However, Jonathan could not implement the recommendations contained in that 2014 National Conference document before the 2015 elections that failed to return him to power. Unfortunately, incoming president Muhammadu Buhari, due to regional interest from the Hausa North abandoned this laudable 2014 confab document to the dustbin of history.
Renewed Hope Agenda.
This is a transformative policy thrust of president Ahmed Bola Tinubu administration launched in 2023.
It is aimed at repositioning Nigeria as a prime global hub and destination to accelerate amongst others, development diversification, manufacturing and innovation, industrialization, digitization, creative arts, and to improve governance for effective service delivery.
WHY THESE PLANS FAILED TO UPLIFT NIGERIA
Nigeria is a country of over 230 million population with over 70% of this made up of youths in the average age of 30 years, second to India in the world.
However, several development plans have been initiated over the years in order to take Nigeria’s economy out of the woods but to no success.
Some of the factors that have accounted for these failure include the following :
Poor policy implementation.
Inability of the policies to impact the industrial sector.
Non continuity of pilicies and programmes from regime to regime.
Political considerations and undue interference.
Corruption.
Nigeria’s structural deficiencies/limitations within the global economic systems thus leading to comparative disadvantages to compete in the global industrial sector.
Insecurity caused by the activities of Boko Haram, Fulani herdsmen, bandits and all kinds of terrorist groups. This makes Nigeria not attractive to foreign investments.
Nepotism and ethnicity.
Religious affiliation and religious crisis.
A flawed and ineffective educational system.
NATIONALITIES AGITATIONS FOR SELF DETERMINATION
Nigeria began to witness an upsurge in the spate of agitations for self determination and secessionist groups in all parts of the country of late.
Never in the history of Nigeria have there been this kind of galvanization of the populace and reawakening to regionalism for self determination as witnessed during the administration of president Muhammadu Buhari (2015 – 2023).
Incidentally, Buhari was overwhelmingly voted into power in 2015 and given a renewed mandate of another four (4) years in 2019 to bring the country together, and ensure the needed peace that had eluded this country since independence.
Regrettably, things never got better.
The Igbos through IPOB insist on actualising their Biafra secessionist agenda.
In order to give directional and guided teeth to the biting youthful fighting wing, the South Eastern States went ahead to set up the “Ebube Agu” following on the heels of the Yoruba South West States of Oduduwa republic with their defense outfit of ‘Amotekun’.
While this is going on, the Middle Belt is said to be comfortable belonging to a now new territory in Nigeria without the Hausa Fulani North.
In the midst of all this, the South South is unrelenting on their age long land degradation and clean up campaign, water pollution, and resource control agitations for which their own beloved son Ken Saro Wiwa along with 8 other environmental and human rights activists of the famous Movement for the Survival of Ogoni People (MOSOP) were brutally executed by hanging in Port Harcourt on 10th November, 1995 by then Head of State Major General Sani Abacha.
For the first time, the Southern Governors comprising of South West, South East, and South South came together in an epoch making meeting to chart a way forward in the face of a Nigeria that is drifting on the precipice towards the brink.
Undoubtedly, ‘Emperor’ Buhari during his administration was widely accused of pursuing selfish and unpopular policies of nepotism, marginalization, regionalism, and worst of all a Fulani occupation agenda.
Expectedly, the Buhari presidency was widely accused of puting a knife on the things that held us together and we’ve continued to fall apart.
IPOB PERSPECTIVE
Indigenous People Of Biafra (IPOB) was formed as a reaction, and to call for attention towards addressing some of the grievances of marginalization visited on the people of South Eastern Nigeria by successive governments.
At the end of the 30 months Nigerian civil war of 1967-1970, the then military government of General Yakubu Gowon’s popular declaration of “no victor, no vanquished” was hailed by the world community as a welcome means of puting behind the sad experience of the war.
Interestingly, Gowon went a step further by unveiling the government’s 3R’s policy of Reconciliation, Reconstruction, and Rehabilitation, all meant to reintegrate the rebel and secessionist Biafra into the bigger Nigerian federation.
However, several decades after the civil war, manifest indicators abound to show that this policy declaration had failed rather woefully without solving the issues that led to the war.
Notable grievances bothering on injustice, marginalization, alienation, flawed federalism, and inappropriate sectional domination have never abated to placate the Igbos.
For example, no Igbo ever ruled Nigeria since the end of the first republic. Even Nnamdi Azikiwe was just a mere ceremonial president in that first republic.
In efforts to address the fall out of the South East youth restivenes, then president Muhammadu Buhari only succeeded in puting salt into injury when he referred to the Igbo Nation as “a dot in the middle”
Not surprising, anyway, all these actions and inactions of continued alienation of the Igbo race in a federal Nigeria by successive governments have only succeeded to endanger social unrest, armed insurrection, and insurgency.
Undoubtedly, this is the catalyst needed by IPOB to recruit foot soldiers in order to actualise their long time dream of a self determined Briafra Nation.
Like him, hate him, love to hate him, Ma’azi Nnamdi Kanu is an enigma that is seen by many Igbos to put his feet in those big shoes left behind by the only Ikemba, Col. Odumegwu Ojukwu as he stepped forward to emerge, and is now the leader and symbol of the Igbo struggle.
If Nnamdi Kanu is not quickly given justice, if there is no visible and honest Reconciliation, Reconstruction, and Rehabilitation of the Igbos; and if agitations of other regions are abandoned to a stage where they team up with the Igbos as a result of obvious marginalization, alienation, nepotism, and other unpopular policies visited on them continue, the next civil war in Nigeria may be multi faceted, which will likely exceed the territorial limitations of the 1967-1970 imbroglio and pogrom.
This situation will definitely threaten the peace of not only the West African sub region, the Gulf of Guinea, but also the whole of Africa.
If that happens (God forbid) Nigeria may break up into several nationalities as experienced in the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and Sudan just to mention a few.
FULANI OCCUPATION AGENDA
The Fulani through their militant wing of the fulani herdsmen as guided by Miyetti Allah have for a long time now been allegedly pursuing an agenda of “kill, drive, occupy” in as much territories as possible.
In like manner, the Buhari presidency have been accused by many keen watchers to be sympathetic and supportive of this occupation agenda.
This was glaringly evidenced in his body language, and policies that continued to change in name, outlook, and nomenclature as Nigerians kept opposing.
Regrettably, this much talked about unpopular RUGA, Cattle colony, Grazing reserves, Cattle routes, Ranching, fulani settlement, etc had succeeded in galvanizing the Buhari presidency on one side and the non Hausa/Fulani Nigerians on the other. The outcome of which the two opposing sides were on a collision course to the detriment of good governance and progress.
This rampaging fulani heardsmen terrorists have since been, and are still wrecking havock all over Nigeria from the wide plains of the North, to the green lustful vegetation of the Middle Belt, and down to the swampy forests of the Niger Delta.
In this their campaign of occupation, this gun kitted heardsmen rape, kill, burn, destroy communities, and occupy.
As unfortunately as it is, in this fulani genocidal campaign of occupation, millions of indigenous people have been killed, a lot more have been dispossessed of their ancestral land, while hundreds of thousands have been neglected and abandoned in IDP camps for up to eight to ten years.
Wrongly or rightly, Nigerians were allegedly accusing Muhammadu Buhari of waging, pursuing, and accomplishing the unfinished Fulani Jihad of conquest/occupation of Nigeria’s land begun by his great grand fulani kinsman warrior Usman Dan Fodio.
REFERENDUM JIGSAW
Commentators, keen political watchers, aggrieved parties, etc have called for the conduct of a referendum to determine the desirability or otherwise of quitting or remaining in Nigeria.
It may be recalled some of the instances where a referendum supervised by the UN was applied to allow nationalities to exit their former country. Such countries include the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and Sudan.
Regrettably, however, it may be a herculean task to conduct a referendum of dismemberment of Nigeria.
This is because the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria as amended did not accommodate any clause anywhere in any sections of that document for a referendum to determine the dismemberment of Nigeria.
According to the UN Global Terrorism Index 2020
Nigeria is the third (3) most terrorised country in the world.
Fulani heardsmen have been tagged as the third (3) most terrorist group in the world.
UN Resolutions :
The UN Security Council have come up with resolutions seeking to address issues affecting both repentant terrorists and victims of terrorism.
Some of these include the UN Global Counter Terrorism Strategy A/RES/60/288, Resolution A/RES/72/284, A/72/840, and etc.
Some of these resolutions have been seen to be applied on Boko Haram, and the IPOB, but non have been applied on Fulani heardsmen.
Therefore, if truely Fulani heardsmen is a terrorist group as we have seen them to be and understand,
why haven’t the UN Resolutions been applied on Fulani heardsmen ?
CHRISTIAN/ISLAM DICHOTOMY
Nigerians have continuosly been at daggers drawn at the slightest seeming provocation from any action (even if perceived) that offense the sensibilities of their faith.
Lives have been lost, property destroyed, worship places burnt down due to religious conflicts between christians and muslims.
The hate, mistrust, and sharp division between the two different Nigeria’s religious adherents have so much dominated negatively the past years of nationhood that it transcended every sphare of – education, civil service, employment, residential, land allocation, state/local government creation, administration, armed forces, and politics, etc.
Of unfortunate mention is the crisis arising from the muslim-muslim ticket in the selection process of elective positions for governance at the national level.
These agitations have come from the various nationalities in Nigeria.
The South East complains of marginalization, and alienation. The South West of Insecurity and land occupation by foreign invaders.
While the Middle Belt complain about killing and insecurity, land occupation by invaders, marginalization, and alienation; the South South is unrelenting on their age long complains about land degradation and neglect despite being the goose that lays the golden eggs.
These agitations according to keen watchers of the polity and public opinion anlysts have continued unabated, and even gotten gloomy during the Muhammadu Buhari presidency from 2015 to 2022.
Little wonder the calls for, and phrases like restructuring, devolution of power, decentralization, amendment of the constitution, regional security outfit, food blockade, Muslim-Muslim ticket, etc have suddenly found entry into the National Lexicon.
Regrettably, the country seems to be drifting and getting closer to the brink.
ECONOMIC CRISIS AND CAUSES
ABSENCE OF VISIONARY LEADERSHIP
Nigeria at independence was blessed with leaders that had vision and foresight, good and effective planning, selflessness, and incorruptible men and women. These leaders include Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, Chief Akanu Ibiam, Sir Ahmadu Bello, Chief Ladoke Akintola, and Dr. Michael Okpara.
These crop of leadership ensured the political, educational, social and economic development of the three regions of Northern, Western, and Eastern Nigeria.
Sir Ahmadu Bello in the North through Ground nut, Cotton, Hides and skin built-up infrastructure like the Northern Nigeria Development Company (NNDC), Ahmadu Bello University, Ahmadu Bello Stadium, Colleges of Agriculture, and building of Secondary schools across the region.
In the Eastern Region, their leaders invested in Palm produce and Rubber to develop functional education, the Nkalagu coal mines, Presidential Hotels in Enugu and Port Harcourt, and other infrastructure.
Chief Obafemi Awolowo and other leaders in the Western Region used proceeds from Cocoa to build the entire infrastructure. This includes the Cocoa House in Ibadan, the Western Nigeria TV Station (the first in Africa), Liberty Stadium Ibadan, University of Ife, Free education at all levels to the Western Region, etc.
The next crop of visionary leaders include Yakubu Gowon who united Nigeria after a bitter 30 months civil war with the popular acronym that spelt his name – Go On With One Nigeria (GOWON), his “no victor, no vanquished”, the popular 3Rs of Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and Reconciliation.
Gowon created the first set of states (12) from the three regions, built the first set of refineries, built roads and bridges in major towns especially in Lagos.
Murtala Muhammed, Olusegun Obasanjo, and Ibrahim Babangida introduced pragmatic, progressive, and revolutionary reforms in Nigeria. The country’s capital was relocated to Abuja, more states and local governments were created to bring government nearer to the people.
Umaru Yar’Adua/Jonathan administration introduced the amnesty program which pacified the oil Niger militant youths thereby ensuring full supply of crude oil, introduced the Vision 20-20-20 to launch Nigeria among the top 20 economies of the world by the year 2020.
However, what Nigeria have been going through from the leadership of president Shagari, General Abacha, and Muhammadu Buhari is nothing but corruption, maladministration, political and economic crisis. Successive Nigerian leaders are in competition to surpass each other on religious fanaticism/bigotry, tribalism and nepotism.
These unpopular leadership have caused the economic crisis Nigeria is passing through.
CORRUPTION
“We must kill corruption before corruption will kill Nigeria” – Muhammadu Buhari (2015)
“We’ve got some leaders of some fantastically corrupt countries coming to Britain for this summit… Nigeria and Afghanistan possibly the two most corrupt countries in the world.” – David Cameron (2016) British Prime Minister to Queen Elizabeth during the 2016 UK anti corruption summit which president Muhammadu Buhari represented Nigeria.
Every past Nigerian government have been accused and confronted with staggering figures of corruption. The squandering of Nigeria’s wealth have been bleeding the country dry thereby leaving the coming generations with a gloomy bleak future.
Nigeria is yet to complete the final repatriation of the Abacha loot when others like the Abdulrasheed Maina’s # 2 billion pension fund corruption case surfaced of which he was jailed for 61 years (concurrently for 8 years) in November, 2021.
Not done yet, and for the ministry of finance to allow Ahmed Idris in 2022, the Accountant General of Nigeria to steal a whopping #80 billion in the first instance and another #90 billion in the second instance calls for serious concerns especially in a Buhari led government that prided itself with a water tight corruption fight.
Series of allegations of corruption cases at the corridor of power churns out figures that lend credence to incontrovertible facts.
For instance, the missing #3, 143, 718, 976.47 billion traced to the Ministry of Finance by the Federal Auditor General office in the 2018 and 2019 audit reports for which the Socioeconomic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) sued Muhammadu Buhari in January 2022 for non-investigation.
Further more, corruption in government agencies is becoming increasingly alarming from year to year. For instance, an audit query mandated the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) to refund series of staggering sums of money to the Federal government as products of corruption. These amounts of money include (a)#40.13 billion, (b) $922.64 million, and (c) £289,931.82 million.
According to research by Transparency International, their Corruption Perception Index for 2021 placed Nigeria at 154th position out of 180 countries. This placed Nigeria as the 2nd most corrupt country in Africa.
Unfortunately, one of the short term consequences of this sqandermenia is the warning from the Washington based World Bank that Nigeria might have one of the highest inflation rates globally in 2022.
A long term consequences is that Nigeria has been borrowing to run the country. These foreign debts are mounting so much that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned in its 2020 and 2021 country’s report that Nigeria’s low GDP compared to her debt profile is highly vulnerable to uncomfortable shocks.
As it stands today, world economic experts have warned that Nigeria will spend 100% of her revenue to service debts by 2024/2025.
Surely, and sadly too, a gloomy and bleak future stares at Nigeria.
Corruption in Nigeria’s private business, public business, and especially in government agencies is becoming increasingly alarming from year to year. For instance, an audit query mandated the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) to refund :
#40.13 billion
$922.64 million
$289,931.82 million between 2021and 2022.
11According to research by Transparency International, their Corruption Perception Index for 2021 placed Nigeria at 154 position out of 180 countries surveyed. This placed Nigeria as the 2nd most corrupt country in Africa.
Characteristically, the International Monetary Fund(IMF) had earlier warned in 2022 that Nigeria will spend 100% of her revenue to service debts in 2024.
Some of the most corrupt cases include the following :
Godwin Emefiele.
Appointed governor of the Central Bank by Good Luck Jonathan in 2014, Emefiele was arrested in June 2023 just days after President Bola Tinubu took office. It may interest you to know that Godwin Emefiele had begun preparations to launch his presidential bid campaigns for the 2023 elections but withdrew sometimes in 2022 only after series of fleet of campaign vehicles and state offices were ready.
By July 2023, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu hired a special investigator, Jim Obazee to scrutinize the operations of the Central Bank under Emefiele. Mr. Jim Obazee was the Chief Executive Officer of the Financial Reporting Council of Nigeria between 2011 and 2017.
This investigation came out with revelations of humongous amounts of money in corruption cases involving Mr. Emefiele which the EFCC had been investigating leading to the detention in prison of Emefiele. The funds for which he was alleged to have embezzled is unprecedented, next only to the Abacha loot. Some of the charges include corrupt practices and misuse of authority while in office, receiving of bribes, acquisition of property through fraud, arbitrarily allocating billions of dollars in foreign exchange without bids or due process, conferring undue advantage to his companies and associates, stashing away billions of Nigeria’s funds in 593 bank accounts in foreign banks located in the United States, United Kingdom, and China without authorization by the board and investment committee of the Central Bank, fraudulent cash withdrawals in billions of dollars, a discovery of a specific £543.4 million pounds kept by Emefiele in a fixed deposit account.
The fraudulent and controversial Naira redesign in October 2022 which was neither recommended by the Board of the CBN nor approved by the then President Muhammadu Buhari contrary to the provisions of section 19(1) of the CBN act of 2007, fraudulent practices in paying out money to ministers/government officials under the guise of ‘Ways and Means’ of which many had no presidential approvals, using far more money to pay for less value currency notes during the Naira redesign, for example, Godwin Emefiele was alleged to have used a whopping #18.96 billion to print just a paltry #684.5 million new currency.
Another in the series of his alleged corruption include the theft of $6.23 million from the vault of the CBN between 7 and 8 February 2023 under a purported approval of the president to pay foreign election observers.
Still on Emefiele’s corruption, he was alleged to have embezzled at different times $4.5 billion, £2.8 billion, allocating forex of $2.136 billion and $3.8 billion, collecting bribe of $26,552 million, $7,720 million and $740,000 million from NIPCO plc, $850,000 from Raja Punjab, receiving kick back of $400,000 and $200,000 from Source Computer Ltd.
In another of the series of alleged corruption cases against Godwin Emefiele, the Federal High Court in Lagos in May 2024 ordered the forfeiture of $1,426,175.14 bribe case to the Federal government, and forfeiture of billions of Naira worth of property.
Ahmed Idris
Ahmed Idris was one of the Accountant General of Muhammadu Buhari’s presidency. In 2022 Ahmed Idris stole a whopping #80 billion in the first instance, and another #90 billion in the second. Idris was never sent to jail for this offence. This calls for concern especially in a Buhari led government that prides itself with a water tight corruption fight.
Diezani Alison – Madueke
She was Nigeria’s oil minister from 2010 to 2015 during the presidency of Good Luck Jonathan. She was in the cabinet from 2007 where she was the minister of transport, then moved to the ministry of mines before taking over the oil portfolio.
Allegations of financial crimes against her include but not limited to the following of which the EFCC is still pursuing :
At least £100,000 in cash
Assets worth billions of $ dollars
Multiple of London properties worth billions of pounds.
Illegal/corrupt gifts from designer shops such as Cartier Jewelry and Louis Vuitton
Chauffeur – driven cars
Flights on private jets
Luxury family holidays.
Sadiya Umar – Farouk.
She is a former minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development during the Muhammadu Buhari presidency.
According to the Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP), #729 billion corruption money was traced to Sadiya Umar-Farouk which she claimed was payments of #5,000.00 to 24.3 million poor Nigerians for six months.
Interestingly and of serious concern is that this #729 billion translated to :
Five percent (5%) of Nigeria’s 2021 National budget of #13.6 trillion.
Near equivalent to the federal government annual budgetary allocation to the ministry of education for most of each of the years of the Buhari presidency.
Ahmed Nasir El Rufai
Former governor of Kaduna State during Muhammadu Buhari presidency. Nasir El Rufai is alleged to have embezzled #423 billion which is under investigation. According to the allegations, El Rufai not only left the state bankrupt but also left behind a huge burden of unpaid loans for the government and people of Kaduna State to grapple with.
In another scenario, governor Uba Sani is lamenting that El Rufai left behind another debt of $587 million, #85 billion, and 115 contract liabilities for the people of Kaduna state to pay.
Yahaya Bello.
Alhaji Yahaya Bello, former governor of Kogi state during Muhammadu Buhari presidency is being pursued by the EFCC for alleged embezzlement of #80.246 billion.
Dr. Beta Edu.
Beta Edu was the minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation during the first few months of Boa Tinubu’s presidency. She is alleged of diversion of $640,000 of public funds into a personal account of which she is being investigated by the EFCC.
Just after a few months as the minister, Dr. Beta Edu was allegedly discovered to have used 50 bank accounts to lodge the money. As at April 2024, the EFCC reported that it had recovered #30 billion as part of the on-going corruption probe of Dr. Beta Edu.
AGRICULTURE AND FOOD ABUNDANCE/SCARCITY
“We are a country that prides itself on power and wealth, yet there are millions of people who go hungry every day. It’s our responsibility, not only as a nation, but also as individuals to get involved. So next time you pass someone on the street who is in need, remember how lucky you are, and don’t turn away – give a helping hand.” – Lesley Boone (actress and social activist).
Nigeria is blessed with abundance and potentials of agricultural resources, large expanse of land estimated at 91 million hectares of which 81is arable, rich soil, well distributed rainfall, and warm temperatures. Agriculture has its place in the history of Nigeria as this explains the ‘green’ colour in the flag, and serving as the major source of livelihood of over 75% of the population.
Long before the advent of Nigeria’s colonization and even after, our ancestors were sustained primarily on farming with the use of crude implements unlike the mechanized agriculture of today.
The period of colonial administration in Nigeria, ie 1861 – 1960 witnessed a considerable emphasis on agriculture especially by 1893 when research in the production of agricultural products had gained prominence.
By 1905 the British Cotton Growers Association intensified the growing of cotton in Nigeria to feed their home industries. In 1921, a unified Department of Agriculture was formed in Nigeria after the 1914 amalgamation of the Northern and Southern Protectorates. This paved the way for the production of Cotton, Ground nuts, Cocoa, Palm oil, and livestock. These produce were exported to feed the British industries, hence agriculture began to assume the position of Nigeria’s economic mainstay up to many years after and beyond independence.
Available data shows that at independence in 1960 the contribution of agriculture to GDP was about 60%.
Interestingly, the 1962 – 1989 development plans made giant strides which boosted agricultural exports to various countries of the world. This is the development plans that were responsible for Nigeria’s currency to exchange at par with the British Pound and the American Dollar.
In addition, other development plans were launched during the 2000 years period.
Some of these development plans include :
National Accelerated Food Production Programme (NAFPP) launched in 1972.
Operation Feed the Nation (OFN) – 1976.
River Basin and Rural Development Authority (RBDA) – 1976.
Green Revolution Programme – 1980.
The world Bank funded Agricultural Development Projects (ADP).
National Fadama Development Project (NFDP) 1980’s – 1990’s.
National Special Programme on Food Security (NSPFS) – 2002
Root and Tuber Expansion Programme (RTEP) – 2003.
The years since the early 1920’s to the 1960’s also witnessed the establishment of several agricultural research institutes and research liaison services. Some of them are :
National Root Crops Research Institute (NRCRI) Umudike established in 1923.
Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (AERLS) ABU Zaria established in 1963.
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) Ibadan established in 1967.
However, due to the coming of the oil boom beginning from the mid 1970’s, agriculture in Nigeria assumed a gradual downward trend. Agriculture that had contributed over 90% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ceded this position to Petroleum.
This agricultural decline started with about 50% between 1973 to 1975, to about 25% between 1975 and 1979, getting gradually to less than 1% between 1990 to date(2024) at a time when Nigeria’s population had jumped to over 200 million.
The ideas envisioned in those past transformation agendas and strategic planning were meant to achieve an economic buoyant Nigeria through an agricultural sector that drives income growth, accelerate the achievement of food and nutritional security, generate employment opportunities for the teaming population, and transform the country into a leading player in global food market have all been abandoned by successive governments.
In view of the unfortunate downturn regression in the mounting agricultural economic crisis, Nigeria had to augment its food need by massive importation. This food import bill rose from merely #212.88 million annually between 1970 – 1975, to #1,964.8 million in 1991. As at today (2024) Nigeria is unable to feed her population, the country is severely ravaged by hunger and starvation. Children, women and men are dying of food scarcity, hunger and malnutrition.
Besides the negligence of the agricultural sector over the preference for the petroleum sector, the majority of farmers (90%) still use crude implements/methods of farming, there is poor storage facilities, poor infrastructure and processing, unstable market forces, land tenure system, and erosion.
The worst to happen to Nigeria’s agricultural sector is the arrival of the government of president Muhammadu Buhari from 2015 – 2023. During the period Buhari allowed Fulani from all over Africa entry into Nigeria. African Fulani herdsmen were ushered into Nigeria with series of government policies of Cattle Colonies, RUGA, Grazing Reserves, Grazing Routes, etc despite opposition from the public especially Benue state who went ahead to enact an Anti open grazing law.
The Fulani herdsmen went about killing people, their ancestral land forcefully taken and occupied by the rampaging herders, cultivated crops wilfully destroyed for cattle to feed on, already harvested crops eaten up by cattle, farmers unable to access their own farms, etc.
Fulani herdsmen and bandits pepertrated violence unhindered, unarrested, but protected by the government of president Muhammadu Buhari.
According to available data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s job outlook in the Agricultural sector dropped from 2.10% in the 4th Quarter of 2023 to 0.18% in the 1st Quarter of 2024.
Muhammadu Buhari and his Fulani kinsmen have put a knife on the vibrant agricultural sector of the country thereby causing an unimaginable economic crisis with catastrophic consequences in Nigeria, the “giant” of Africa.
OIL SECTOR MISMANAGEMENT
Oil subsidy scam :
Nigeria’s three (3) refineries at Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna have not functioned for decades, causing endless importation of petroleum products into the country which are subsidized by government funding.
Due to the :
Rising high cost of crude oil in the International market.
The cost of refined petroleum products.
The falling value of the #aira, and
The corrupt Nigerian system,
petroleum subsidy grew from #350 billion in 2019 to #450 billion in 2020.
Data from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) shows that for January and February 2022 alone the cost for subsidy was #396.72 billion. Further more, the Federal legislature approved another sum of #4 trillion which was spent on subsidy again for 2022.
If not for corruption and scam, why did the federal government abandoned its enacted Petroleum Industry Act of 2021 that prescribed a free market for the downstream sector of the petroleum industry ?
According to president Muhammadu Buhari’s minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed in July 2022, the country was expected to pay as much as #6,72 trillion for subsidy in 2023.
The problem arising from these subsidy spending is how Nigeria with a total annual budget of #17 trillion use a whopping #6.72 trillion for subsidy alone ?
How was Nigeria going to cope with a projected revenue of #10 trillion ?
As global oil prices kept surging upwards, and as the cost of maintaining a subsidy regime got higher and higher, president Ahmed Bola Tinubu had to take the bull by the horn to announce the immediate removal of subsidy in his inaugural address on 29th May, 2023.
Ever since that subsidy removal, things have changed to bad for Nigerians as they have been exposed to the worst economic crisis ever in the history of this nation.
Nigerians are yet to see the areas where the funds saved from the removal of subsidy are channelled to.
Turn Around Maintenance (TAM) scam :
Petroleum industry experts lament the whopping sum of $26.5 billion which Muhammadu Buhari’s government have so far spent on the maintenance of the refineries at Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna.
These 3 refineries have a combined total capacity for 445,000 barrels per day. Experts on energy and construction of refineries have opined that this $26.5 billion was capable of building three new refineries of the same sizes as each of the ones in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna.
This suggestion according to these experts was arrived at based on the cost analysis of refinery construction projects currently going on across the world :
Ecuador refinery being constructed at Manto is a 500,000 barrels per day capacity for $12 billion.
Dangote refinery in Lagos Nigeria is a 650,000 barrels per day capacity constructed for $15 billion.
Al Zour refinery in Kuwait with a capacity for 615 barrels per day at the cost of $16 billion.
The implication of all these figures is that, with Nigeria’s three refineries having a combined total capacity for 445,000 barrels per day, it therefore means that it will cost less than :
$8 billion to build a new 210,000 barrels per day capacity refinery in Port Harcourt – the same size like the existing one under endless maintenance.
It will cost less than $8 billion to construct a new refinery in Warri, just like the existing one with same refining capacity of 125, 000 barrels per day.
Kaduna refinery has a refining capacity of 110,000 barrels per day. If an exact/similar refinery was built in Kaduna in 2023 it would have cost less than $8 billion.
Going by this expert analysis, the three new refineries would have cost only about $24 billion. This would have saved Nigerians the agony of :
Wasting $26.5 billion.
Endless scam maintenance of refineries with no drop of oil.
Importation of Petroleum products.
Corrupt subsidy regime.
Unemployed population of youths.
Putting Nigeria under unnecessary economic crisis.
Oil theft :
Oil theft is the illegal and unauthorized appropriation of crude or refined oil through oil bunkering, diversion, and smuggling by persons and or groups to engage in the business of oil exploration, mining, refining, transportation, sales, etc. Oil theft is a major factor in Nigeria’s oil production line because the country loses billions of dollars in crude and refined oil theft.
As the 15th world oil producer, Nigeria lost its top spot of Africa’s no.1 oil producer position to Libya in March 2024.
According to FirstPost Africa (2024), Nigeria is dealing with an oil theft crisis that has defied successive administrations. In their research, about 620 million barrels of crude oil valued at $46 billion dollars between 2009 and 2020.
In another research by the Nigerian Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative, 4.2 billion liters of petroleum products were lost from the refineries due to the oil theft between 2009 and 2018. This was estimated at 140,000 barrels per day.
Nigeria’s crude oil annual output progressively decreased from its potential capacity 2.2 million barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day. Government estimates that over the last year (2023), more than $3 billion worth of oil was stolen.
Nigeria’s crude oil accounts for over 85% of the country’s revenue. As the country is unable to refine its crude oil, Nigeria imports petroleum products for her domestic consumption. This has consequently led to significant revenue loses for the country.
As at 2023/2024, Nigeria is unable to even meet its approved OPEC quarter due to oil theft and insecurity.
As at today (2024) oil energy experts say that Nigeria is doing but barely fluctuating between affordable limits of barrels per day. This oil theft business of which government cannot exenorate itself from complicity is depleting Nigeria’s oil resources at the detriment of over 200 million embattled with harsh economic crisis.
Some of those allegedly found to be involved in the illegal theft of oil include the following :
Military and security forces.
Militant organizations.
Resident oil company employees.
Local population.
Political leaders.
LOANS AND DEBTS
Its on record that Nigeria is in (2015 – 2024) economic crisis partly due to Muhammadu Buhari’s government penchant for taking loans from :
Foreign/external loans
Domestic loans
Ways and means
These loans are responsible for Nigeria’s high debts profile thereby increasing the level of budget deficit as well as hightening the problem of economic crisis.
Available facts of budget deficit indicated that as at first quarter (Q1) of 2022 the federal government of president Muhammadu Buhari had borrowed #22.03 trillion in seven (7) years. This is the highest borrowing in Nigeria since 1999.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s public debt stock which includes external and domestic debts stood at #87.38 trillion in the second quarter (Q2) of 2023.
That of the first quarter (Q1) of 2023 was #49.85 trillion.
These statistical analysis indicates a growth rate of 75.27%, meaning that as at Q1 and Q2 of 2024, Nigeria’s debt profile is unprecedentedly higher than that of 2023 since president Ahmed Tinubu is also deep into taking of loans.
As of March 2024, Nigeria’s Debt Management Office (DMO) clarified that the country’s domestic and external debts stood at #121.67 trillion, rising from #97.34 trillion in December 2023.
This had earlier rose to #107.38 trillion in February 2024 following the approval of fresh borrowings for the federal government.
This steady rises was attributed to new borrowing regime undertaken to partly finance the 2024 budget deficit.
Expectedly, this indicates that Nigeria has a continuous circle of borrowing from year to year. And as a result of these borrowing spree, Nigeria’s over reliance on borrowing for public spending comes with a heavy burden of debt serving placed on the limited government resources.
As a consequence, Nigeria have to yearly service these debts with ninety (90%) percent of her revenue. This meant that Nigeria was heading towards a serious economic crisis. To make matters worst, president Tinubu had pegged the Naira at seven hundred and fifty naira to the Dollar (#150/$1) in preparing the 2024 budget. But barely few weeks into the operationalization of that budget, the Naira plunged to nearly two thousand (#2,000.000/$1) Naira to the Dollar in February 2024.
All these have come on the backdrop of series of warnings from finance experts like the Director General of the Debt Management Office (DMO), Patience Oniha, who noted that high inflation rate have continued to impact how Nigeria can enter the foreign market.
According to her, “there is still uncertainty around the world from the Russian – Ukraine war, so foreign investors are a bit more cautious.
According to Bismarck Rewane, the Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company, in a document titled ‘2024 : The Hard Road Ahead’, he highlighted that Nigeria’s debt is becoming increasingly unsustainable and the country’s debt burden will be further worsened by high – interest rates in 2024.
According to him, “Nigeria service its debts with 99% of its revenue in the first half (H1′ 2023) of 2023”, and this will be exacerbated by high interest rates in 2024.
In another twist, the world bank had recently (Q1’2024) projected that debt servicing may gulp 123.4% of Nigeria’s federal government revenue.
DEBT PER CAPITA
Debt per capita is the sharing of a country’s debt to every citizen – child and adult, male and female.
Debt stock per capita is calculated by dividing the total public debts of the country’s population.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) , Nigeria has a projected population of 216.78 million. Going by the country’s debt profile of #121.67 trillion, you may wish to calculate to find out how much debt is owed by each individual Nigerian – child and adult, young and old, male and female.
