By Emmanuel Gandu
INTRODUCTION
A “failed state” is a country where the central government has lost effective control over its territory and can no longer provide basic public services, security, enforcement of rule of law. It is a loss of governing legitimacy and a collapse of civic and economic functions.
A failed state has lost its ability to fulfill fundamental development functions, lacking political infrastructure and effective control over its territory and borders. When this happens, likely consequences include widespread looting, corruption and criminality, the intervention of state and non-state actors, the appearance of refugees and the involuntary movement of populations, sharp economic decline, and the emergence of war lords from both within and outside the state.
While nations rarely go extinct, many countries vanish from the world map due to wars, peaceful splits, or political mergers. Many sovereign states and empires have ended and become territories of other countries. Notable examples of modern nations that went extinct include the Soviet union (USSR), Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, Prussia, Abyssinia (Ethiopian Empire), Ottoman Empire, Austria-Hungary, Sikkim, South Vietnam, and Gran Colombia. Gran Colombia was a short-lived South American republic from 1819 to 1831 that later split into the modern nations of Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Panama.
While some nations successfully transition out of failure or extinction through international assistance, others remain caught up in prolonged cycles of instability.
Research organizations such as the ‘Fund for Peace’ track these vulnerabilities, identifying several counties that have historically experienced deep fragility leading to state failure. Such include Somalia, Afghanistan, Yemen, South Sudan, Syria, and Haiti.
This discourse is an attempt to highlight and bring to the fore the myriad of situations in Nigeria that may likely lead to a failed state by the year 2050.
After all, the handwriting is on the wall. Nigeria is moving towards the brink. Bombs go off like firecrackers, the booming gunfire is normal music sound in the ears of the lucky survivors. In the midst of all these, the corrupt political class and their collaborators in the military and the public service are busy stashing away funds meant for the development of the country to their foreign bank accounts. Meanwhile, the people are agitating for the review of the allocation formula.
There are calls for the implementation of the 2014 National Conference report. Regions are threatening to pull out of the so called federation. Fulani militia and bandits have joined forces with Boko Haram to reign human and economic havock on Nigeria. While the Yoruba ethnic block insist on having their Oduduwa republic, the Middle Belt is still looking for the creation of that biggest regional block, as IPOB keeps dreaming of their Biafra, the country of the rising sun.
Interestingly, the Niger Delta keeps making their demand for resource control. Christians are accusing Muslims of endless genocide and Jihad in order to Islamize and take over Nigeria.
Lamentably, while all these divisiveness lasts, and the resources of the country keeps dwindling by the day, the population growth rate remains alarming.
These and the following discourse are ominous signs of events/activities that set the stage for a failed state or a nation going into extinction.
MONETIZATION OF DEMOCRACY
As Nigeria’s democracy is shaped and controlled by a high level of monetization, the existing political structures and governance machinery emerges on a level never experienced in the world.
Using the APC as a case study, their sales of forms/tickets to the various elective positions goes for the highest bidder. Having paid such high amount, a candidate is not even assured of the position. Violence had always characterized the conduct of the elections. Across party wards nationwide, the votes from the ballot box have been replaced by the bullets from the barrel of the gun. Election is war in Nigeria.
This crazy “do-or-die” for political power is due largely to the financial privileges, and this explains the endless high level of corruption in Nigeria.
A glimpse of the cost of APC expression of interest and nomination form for the various party posts in 2022, and 2026 speaks much for the high level of monetization of Nigeria’s democracy:
COST OF APC NOMINATION FORM IN 2022
1. Presidential – #100 million.
2. Governorship – #50 million.
3. Senate – #20 million.
4. House of Reps – #10 million.
5. State Assembly – #2 million.
The total amount of money realized by APC from the sales of forms in 2022 was about #30 Billion.
This was broken down as follows:
1. Total presidential ticket sales – #2.45 billion.
2. Total Governorship ticket sales – #2.4 billion.
3. Total Senate ticket sales – #4.82 billion.
4. Total House of Reps. ticket sales – #8.21 billion.
5. Total State Assembly – #3.01 billion.
COST OF APC NOMINATION FORM IN 2026
1. Presidential – #200 million.
2. Governorship – #150 million.
3. Senate – #100 million.
4. House of Reps. – #70 million.
5. State Assembly – #20 million.
NIGERIA’S POLITICAL DEMOGRAPHIES
1. Nigerian politicians make up less than 0.01% of the country’s total population.
2. There are about 11,082 elective political offices in Nigeria serving a population of 220 million Nigerians.
3. By age, majority of Nigeria’s political class is significantly older, with the bulk of top political offices held by persons aged 50 and above.
4. 81% of registered voters are young men and women under the age of 50.
5. Of the 220 million Nigerians, approximately 133 million (63%) are considered multidimentionally poor and marginalized, facing hunger, unemployment, insecurity, deprivation in health, education, and living standards.
6. Approximately 20 million children in Nigeria are out-of-school. This represents the highest in the world.
7. By 2036, ie, 10 years from today (2026) Nigeria’s population is projected to reach 300 million.
8. Nigeria is currently (2026) the 6th most populous country in the world.
9. According to the United Nations Population Fund and the National Bureau of Statics (2026) over 90% of Nigeria’s population is under the age of 50. This translates to 216 million people under the age of 50.
10. Nigeria’s population is young because the country has a very high fertility rate. This averages between 4.3 to 4.5 children per woman. This high birthrate combined with the fact that many men marry up to 4 wives creates a youthful population boom.
11. By the year 2050, ie, 24 years from today (2026) Nigeria will be at par with the United States of America as the 3rd most populous countries in the world. (Is Nigeria ready for this????)
12. 1.4 million youths (2026) are turned out from tertiary institutions yearly into the labour market where the pangs of unemployment awaits them.
DEBTS AND ECONOMIC INDICES
(1) Nigeria’s public debt (Q1 2026) stood at #159.28 trillion. This is driven by government borrowings and persistent budget deficits.
(2) Debt servicing takes a chunk of the national budget, with government allocating #15.8 trillion for debt servicing alone. This, no doubt limits funds that should have been available for critical infrastructure, education and health care.
(3) Nigeria’s 2026 national budget is #68.32 trillion, and if #15.8 trillion is set aside for debt servicing alone, it means that there is no savings for the future.
(4) Nigeria’s Debt Service – to – Revenue ratio is 60%.
This should be a major economic concern for you and I.
THE BIG ⁉️ QUESTION IS – should the Nigerian public trust the corrupt politicians to take us safely out of the woods to the promised land come 2050 when Nigeria would be at par with the USA as the 3rd most populous countries on the surface of the earth????????
CORRUPTION
“Nigeria is fantastically corrupt.”
This phrase was famously used by former British Prime Minister David Cameron in 2016 to describe Nigeria’s systemic corruption issues. Nigeria had continued to embrace a notoriety for scoring very low on the global corruption index, ranking 142 out of 182 countries.
On Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index (2025) Nigeria scores 26 points out of 100.
Regrettably, this consistently low score highlights the systemic challenges within Nigeria’s public sector institutions.
Perhaps, no time in Nigeria’s history have the crisis of corruption assumed a frightening dimension than the 2015 – 2026 democratic dispensation. The endless mass looting of the national treasury by government officials, the economic crisis, and threats to national survival and sovereignty are attributed to the poor quality governance as a result of bad leadership. These downturns have left in their wake collosal waste of resources, psychological trauma, destruction of human life and property, and a polarized citizenry.
Unpardonably, Nigeria is falling into deep morass of inept, clueless, and fantastically corrupt leaders.
The following is just a few of the facts and figures of corruption in Nigeria:
(1) Rightly or wrongly, one Kio Amachree in a widely unsubstantiated circulated document on 21/5/2026 had alleged that 31 APC governors at the end of April 2026 pooled about #800 billion, at an average of #26 billion per state, the proceeds meant to be used to return the president Bola Ahmed Tinubu to power in 2027.
(2) President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in his first year embarked on extravagant spending on:
i. Construction of Lagos – Calabar coastal road worth $13 billion, and allegedly awarded without tender.
ii. Replacement of fleet of SUV cars at the cost of #160 billion.
iii. Purchase of a presidential jet at the cost of #150 billion.
iv. Renovation of Vice president house at #21 billion.
v. Purchase of presidential yacht at #5 billion.
(3) The Muhammadu Buhari government (2015 – 2023) spent a whopping $26 billion on Turn Around Maintenance of Nigeria’s 3 refineries at Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna without producing a drop of oil. Interestingly, energy experts had advised the Buhari government that less of this $26 billion could build 3 brand new refineries with same capacity in same locations of Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna. Unfortunately, government turned down the advice, and today (2026) the 3 refineries have never given Nigerians a drop of oil, they are not functioning.
(4) Majority of Nigeria’s current top serving and retired government officials in the executive, legislative, and judiciary both at the federal and state levels have pending high profile corruption cases with EFCC, ICPC, CCB, and CCT on their shoulders, some for over 20 years.
(5) Immediate past Central Bank governor Godwin Emefiele had stashed away billions of naira public funds in 593 bank accounts in foreign banks located in the US, UK, and China. Chains of housing estates owned by him have been confiscated.
(6) Mal. Idris Ibrahim, Mohammadu Buhari’s Accountant General of the federation stole a whopping #80 billion in the first instance, and another #90 billion in the second instance within a period of 2 years.
(7) Several years after, Nigerians are yet to know the conclusion of these high profile cases of corruption. Several of the corrupt people have always been in government. Some at the presidency, at the Senate and House, as ministers, as state governors, and as aspiring political office holders come 2027.
(8) There have been allegations of enormous scams in weapons and defence procurements, and misuse of the #3 trillion defence budget since 2011 under the guise of fighting Boko Haram, banditry and kidnapping.
(9) The entrenched culture of endemic corruption in Nigeria makes it difficulty for funds to be saved from subsidy withdrawal, tariff increases, intensified taxation, cuts in social welfare programs, and other sources of revenue.
As these funds are misappropriated, government continue to resort to more borrowings.
INSECURITY
(1) Nigeria had since joined the league of highly terrorized and failed states of the world when the Global Terrorism Index of 2020 listed the country as the 3rd most terrorized country in the world after Afghanistan, and Iraq.
(2) Boko Haram killed tens of thousands of people in nigeria including humanitarian agency workers since launching its insurgency in 2009.
According to the Global Center For the Responsibility to Protect (GCR2P) and the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), this extremist group’s campaign of violence has resulted in well over 50,000 deaths across Nigeria. The deaths/casualty includes civilians, military forces, and the insurgents themselves. The resultant humanitarian crisis have displaced over 2 million people, devastated regional infrastructure, captured and occupied territory.
(3) Foreign Fulani and transnational bandits infiltrate Nigeria by exploiting the country’s vast, un-policed borders, a Mohammadu Buhari regime who promised them land in the name of grazing reserves and cattle colonies, historical transhuman routes, and unregulated economic migration.
This situation is made worst by:
i. The porouse borders where Nigeria shares with Niger, Chad, Mali, and Cameroon.
ii. The ungoverned massive forests.
iii. The proliferation of armed bandit groups who find Nigeria a lucrative ground for money making.
(4) #20 billion in 500 attacks was reported to be raked in by kidnappers and bandits. So, who is paying?, who is collecting?, who is sponsoring the bandits?, how many of them have been arrested?, is Nigeria not approaching a failed state situation.?
(5) The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and SBM Intelligence estimated that no fewwer than 4,723 people were kidnapped across Nigeria between July 2024 and June 2025, with 762 deaths. Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna, Sokoto, and Niger state top the list in that order.
(6) Meanwhile, successive governments have kept faith with the provision of funds to the military.
This is Nigeria’s Ministry of Defence budget for the following years:
© 2024 – #3.25 trillion
© 2025 – #3.10 trillion
© 2026 – #3.15 trillion.
The 2026 allocation is part of a broader #5.41 trillion national security and defence budget intended to combat banditry and terrorism across Nigeria.
Are these not clear ominous signs of a failed state?
