BY TIM AKANO
I warned Iran on June 13 that she had no chance in hell to win a war with Israel and America.
I warned those clapping for Iran that they should peep on the window to see what is left of Iraq, next door, before encouraging Iran militarily.
Iran, for 30 years, have been saying “death to America, death to Israel (they call them Big Satan and little Satan)”.
And I said, it is only a TREE that sees Cutlass coming that will stand static and do nothing to defend itself from avoidable death!
As a Realist Geopolitics Analyst, I based my position on *what is, not what it ought to be, regarding the current global balance of power and balance of terror*
The odds are against Iran, I said. Russia is overwhelmed in an unwinnable war in Ukraine. Saudi Arabia and other Middle East moderate (Sunni) countries are not GAME North Korea is still bleeding, the Rocket Boy lost too many of her soldiers fighting on the side of Russia in Ukraine. China? The smartest nation on earth, today. China is too smart to get involved in Iran’s military’s ulcer! The one decisive war China is preparing to fight is over Taiwan. And her plan is a 24-hour war over Taiwan: just in one day before 2030, the world will wake up to see Taiwan has been unified with China by overwhelming force.
It is in the strategic, parochial interest of China that Russia and America should continue to fight small small wars and wear themselves out militarily. China will move only when America and Russia have become war-weary
China believes in the Deng theory that: *It is historical necessity that the door will open automatically for China to step forward and receive her world’s captainship crown at a point in time, therefore, there is no need to force the door open*
If Iran is allowed to acquire nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia as a survival necessity will buy a Modular nuclear weapons from Pakistan at any price. Turkey, too, will get nuclear weapons from Russia.
The little countries in the Middle East will become fearful, like UAE, Qatar, Kuwait. Because any of the big country can invade the little ones the way Iraq did to Kuwait.
Some people are looking at the issue from the narrow, religious or ethnic perspective.
Saudi Arabia never felt threatened by Israel but Saudi is not comfortable with Iran’s nuclear weapons and Saudi Arabia’s crown Prince, MBS, had said it with finality that nuclear weapons in the hands of Iran means a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
Is that what we want or we want peace in the Middle East?
I vote for a peaceful Middle East.
Iran has a right to respond, however, Ayatollah should realize that not everything legal is expedient.
Iran should emulate Japan that accepted defeat after the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 and ended up becoming America’s best friend, and world’s 2nd biggest economy at a point.
Iran should focus on building a strong economy like Japan and Germany did after their defeat in 1945.
Iran, being the 3rd largest oil producer globally, has a chance of becoming the strongest economy in the Middle East with her 90 million population
Iran should focus on competing with Saudi Arabia and UAE in the Middle East economically, rather than competing with Israel militarily.
*Last Line:*
1 TRUTH social media, belonging to Trump, is gradually and systematically becoming the main source of BREAKING NEWS globally as against X platform of Elon Musk
Absolute power (political, economic, social and military) is converging around one man (Trump). Good? Bad? No, it is dangerous: *absolute power corrupts absolutely.* Trump publicly disagreed with his NSA lady and went ahead to do what is mind told him to do. That’s dangerous for the world.
2 Trump has come out to be a master of *DECEPTIVE, CREATIVE DIPLOMACY.* He gave Iran 60-days window for negotiation and 2 weeks maximum before taking his decision. Europe was hoping they had till next week to find a peaceful, diplomatic solution.
Then, today, the B-2 machine went for it’s first ever journey to bumb Iran nuclear bunker successfully.
What took Iran 30 years to build, in 3 hours, B-2 bomber undid!
Therefore, Trump is not as dumb as he talks, probably he is a specialist in *AMBIGUITY DIPLOMACY.*
3 Europe/ NATO are becoming irrelevant. European leaders meeting last week with Iran didn’t move the needle in Washington.
There are only 3 power bases today or rather there are only 3 powers:
Power 1: Trump
Power 2 Xi Jinping
Power 3 Putin
Europe, Africa are missing at the party. The world is back in the era of strong men, STRONG INSTITUTIONS ARE DYING! Bad, Bad, Bad.
That was how the world slept- walked into WW2, the BIG-4: Roosevelt, Stalin, Churchill and Hitler.
4 Africa should learn a lesson: *countries that seek transformation should do so UNDER THE RADAR.*
The type of hype and noise from Burkina faso is uncalled for and counterproductive.
I love China model *China’s transformation took place under the radar.* Before America knew what was going on, China had become unconquerable, at least economically speaking .
And even then, militarily, America can not destroy China without destroying itself simultaneously. It’s a kind of MAD: Mutual Assured Destruction.
Africa should focus on economy transformation and do it stealthily.
All said, is it a new DAWN or a new DOWN? The answer is in the WOMB of time.
Again, my recommendation is for DIPLOMACY. Turkey, should step forward and champion Diplomacy on behalf of Iran.
Diolomacy, not Retaliation, is the option for Iran.
Is the world Fair? Power is power
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