1. Overview
Nigeria’s insecurity landscape is shaped by two major patterns
a. Terrorism and insurgency (mainly in the Northeast and parts of the Northwest).
b. Rural banditry and organized armed violence (mostly in the Northwest and North-Central).
c. Other forms—such as militancy in the Niger Delta and separatist-linked violence in the Southeast —also contribute to the overall geography of insecurity.
2. Core Terrorism Zones
A. Northeast Nigeria (Epicenter of Boko Haram / ISWAP Insurgency)
Key States:
i. Borno (strongest concentration; Sambisa Forest, Lake Chad Basin)
ii. Yobe
iii. Adamawa
Geographic drivers:
– Presence of vast forests (Sambisa) and marshlands (Lake Chad).
– Porous borders with Niger, Chad, and Cameroon enabling movement of fighters and weapons.
– Historically weak state presence in remote communities.
Terrorist factions operating here:
– Boko Haram (JAS faction)
– Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP)
Spatial characteristics:
– Raids concentrated around river valleys, forest belts, and border corridors.
– ISWAP controls pockets around Lake Chad islands and uses them as staging areas.
3. Geography of Banditry
A. Northwest Nigeria (Heart of Banditry)**
Key States:
i. Zamfara (core zone)
ii. Katsina
iii. Sokoto
iv. Kaduna (also intersects with terrorism)
v. Kebbi
Why this region is most affected:
– Large forest complexes:
i. Rugu Forest (Katsina/Kaduna/Zamfara border)
ii. Kuyanbana Forest**
iii.Sububu Forest**
iv. Kamuku Forest**
Sparse policing and wide rural distances.
– Cattle routes, mining areas (e.g., illegal gold mining in Zamfara) and ungoverned spaces serve as economic drivers.
– Easy cross-border mobility with Niger Republic
NATURE OF VIOLENCE
– Kidnapping for ransom
– Cattle rustling
– Village raids
– Assassinations and extortion
B. North-Central Nigeria (Spillover Banditry + Farmer-Herder Conflict)
Key States:
i. Niger (major sanctuary areas around Shiroro/Kagara forests)
ii. Plateau
iii. Benue
iv. Kogi
v. Kwara
vi.Nasarawa
GEOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS
i. Forested belts and mountain systems (e.g., Plateau highlands).
ii.Bandit networks from Northwest expand into Niger, Kogi, and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) corridor.
iii.Farmer-herder conflict hotspots overlap with bandit movement routes.
Proximity to Abuja:
– Some of the most concerning bandit attacks since 2021–2024 occurred in Niger State, which borders the FCT, making it a strategic expansion corridor.
4. Other Significant Insecurity Zones
A. Southeast (IPOB/ESN-linked violence)
States affected:
– Imo, Anambra, Enugu, Abia, Ebonyi
Geographic features:
– Operations concentrated in forest edges, rural border towns, and urban peripheries.
– Targeted killings, police station attacks, and road ambushes.
B. Niger Delta (Militancy, oil theft, piracy)
Key States:
i. Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Edo
Characteristics:
– Dense mangrove swamps and creeks provide cover for:
– Illegal oil bunkering
– Pipeline sabotage
– Kidnapping in offshore/onshore corridors
C. North-East/North-West Border (Hybrid terrorism + banditry)
i. Northern Kaduna, Southern Katsina, Eastern Sokoto, and parts of Zamfara experience overlap of:
– Bandit gangs
– ISWAP cells
– Jihadist infiltration routes from Lake Chad and Sahel
5. Key Cross-Border Influences
Nigeria shares borders with four countries, all influencing insecurity flows:
– Niger Republic — primary route for bandit migration and arms trafficking.
– Chad & Cameroon — Boko Haram/ISWAP supply routes.
– Benin Republic — secondary route for smuggling and movement of small arms.
Sahelian instability (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) also contributes to arms proliferation and ideological spillovers.
