The Presidency’s optimism that Nigeria’s inflation rate will fall to single digits in the coming months has sparked mixed reactions among economic experts, with some describing the projection as “overly ambitious” given current realities.
Speaking on Monday, a senior presidential aide reiterated government’s confidence that ongoing reforms in agriculture, monetary policy, and energy would soon ease inflationary pressures. He noted that the administration’s interventions—such as food distribution schemes, support for local farmers, and tighter fiscal discipline—were already stabilizing the economy.
“The President is committed to ensuring that Nigerians feel real relief soon. Our target is to achieve single-digit inflation, and we are confident it is within reach”.
However, several economists pushed back, arguing that while government reforms are necessary, structural issues still pose significant hurdles.
Dr. Grace Akintola, an economist at the University of Lagos, said achieving single-digit inflation “will be very difficult in the short term” due to persistent food shortages, high energy costs, and naira volatility. “The government’s efforts are commendable, but inflation is driven by deep-rooted supply chain challenges. Without massive productivity growth, we cannot realistically expect single digits soon”.
Similarly, Abuja-based financial analyst, Musa Yakubu, noted that inflationary pressures were being compounded by global oil price fluctuations and Nigeria’s reliance on imports. “External shocks beyond the government’s control mean projections must be cautious. The best-case scenario may be a gradual decline, but not single digits in the near future”.
Still, some experts maintained that with disciplined implementation of reforms, the government’s projection might not be entirely impossible. “If fiscal and monetary policies are harmonized effectively, and insecurity in food-producing regions is tackled, inflation could fall faster than expected,” argued Prof. Ifeoma Nnaji, a development economist.
Nigeria’s inflation currently stands at over 20 percent, driven largely by food inflation and rising costs of living. The debate now centers on whether government’s optimism can translate into tangible relief for households already struggling under high prices.
