Swing States, also known as battleground states, can sway the outcome of a national election.
One of the defining characteristics of a swing state is its ambiguous political leanings where no party has overwhelming support.
This year, the states being closely watched are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In the 2020 presidential election, Georgia flipped from Republican red to Democratic blue after nearly three decades of voting Republican, and in Arizona, the Democrats won by a narrow margin of 0.3 percentage points.
Polls show Trump and Harris in a narrow race in swing states. Polling in these states is more important in determining the winner than national polling because the Electoral College and not the popular vote chooses the president.
The performance of the two leading candidates in these states are as follow:
Arizona (11 electoral votes)
Trump 48.6%
Harris 46.7%
Georgia (16 electoral votes)
Trump 48.5%
Harris 46.9%
Michigan (15 electoral votes)
Trump 47.2%
Harris 47.4%
Nevada (6 electoral votes)
Trump 47.2%
Harris 47.3%
North Carolina (16 electoral votes)
Trump 48.1%
Harris 47.2%
Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes)
Trump 47.8%
Harris 47.5%
Wisconsin (16 electoral votes)
Trump 47.4%
Harris 47.8%
Trump leads in 4 swing states while Harris leads in 3 sting states.
There are a total of 538 electoral votes. To win the election, a candidate must get 270.
Given the nature of how electoral votes are distributed, specific combinations of states could lead to a tie of 269 votes. Such a scenario is possible, though not probable.
If no candidate wins at least 270 electoral votes, a contingent election takes place in which the US House of Representatives decides the winner.
Each state’s delegation in the House would cast one vote, and a candidate must receive a majority (26 out of 50) of the state delegation votes to win.
The US Senate would then choose the vice president with each senator casting one vote and a simple majority (51 votes) required to win.
