Electoral democracy in Nigeria is in recession. That is a statement on present realities. The future presents a greater source of worry.
Will there be a way back, from what appears to be an inexorable determination by some impertinent tendencies, among the political elite, to obliterate the famed will of the majority, on which democracy is supposed to be anchored? The omen does not look nice.
For those inclined to hide behind their fingers, there is ample evidence, on another end, to back up an argument that democracy is alive in Nigeria, however ugly it may seem to many. Afterall, there are governments in place across the land, stretching from the federal, states and even several local government areas. All governments in these three tiers, are populated by individuals who emerged from elections conducted by approved election management bodies. So who says democracy is not doing well?
The judiciary is also in existence, waiting in its might, to adjudicate on disputations over electoral issues. For good measures, the judges have been giving exceptionally courageous rulings on electoral matters in recent times.These, it can easily be pointed out, are ingredients of democracy, which are well and alive in Nigeria. So, what else does anyone need for democracy to be democracy in Nigeria,it can be asked?
The fact that the judiciary has been recorded, in some remarkable instances, in the recent past, to declare as winners in electoral contests, individuals who were not even contenders in the contest, says few things about the health of Nigeria’s electoral jurisprudence, in the context of the discussion. That, however, is an aside.
A linear interpretation of democracy,as consisting of no more than periodic holding of elections and announcing winners, which are validated by a judiciary that owes its very being to the very traducers of the system, is, indeed, a major foundation of what ails democracy in Nigeria at the moment.
A setting,as is being seen these days,where guns are held over the heads of voters as they undertake the duty of choosing those to represent them, must be the most malignant and spiteful caricature of democracy. And to imagine that more often than not, critical institutions of the state, including security agencies, are complicit in such banditry.
Democracy always flows according to the nuanced dictates of any environment in which it exists. If Nigeria finds fair competition and decent conduct of free election outside the character of what its political elite can accommodate, the country should do well to abolish elections are they come presently. A new creative system of periodic collegiate appointment of individuals to represent different constituencies and godfathers, can be instituted. Such a system will, at least, save the humongous budget that is expended intermittently, on the current travesty of one of the cardinal legs of democracy.
On Saturday, September 21 2024, Edo State will be going to the polls, to choose its governor for the next four years. This, ordinarily, should be another civic exercise. From all indications, however, there will not be much that will be civil about the election on September 21. Daggars are already out and forces of darkness are hovering across the buoyant state, seeking for who to maim and kill, all in the name of election.
Governor of the State, Godwin Obaseki, a man not given to pretences, has captured the election as it will be. He says it will be “a do or die affair”. The governor did not say anything that is not already known by everybody. War drums have been beating in Edo State in recent months. The air has been getting eerier by the day, as a crescendo builds up in the week before the D-Day of September 21,2024, all because some persons are offering themselves, or are being offered, to “serve the people”.
Four years ago, the governorship election that brought Obaseki to his second term was heated,no less. Then, the battle was between Governor Obaseki as incumbent, on the ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party [PDP] and Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the All Progressives Congress [APC]. Obaseki was elected for his first tenure on the platform of the APC, but was refused ticket to contest for second term. He was shut out by Adams Oshiomhole, his predecessor who sponsored him to his first outing as governor. That forced him to migrate to the PDP.While Ize-Iyamu, the APC candidate who was also well known, carried out his campaign, Oshiomhole was no less active, seeing in the contest with Obaseki, a personal war. He had a point to make;Obaseki must be taught a lesson.But Obaseki trumped him.
Four years after, Oshiomhole has returned for a re-match with Obaseki,who is not contesting,but is supporting Asue Ighodalo to succeed him.
Ordinarily, there should be nothing wrong with the setting. When, however, a personal tiff is stretched to the point of compounding an already bad national electoral situation, everything should be done to call people to order. But then, who has the moral standing to do what needs to be done?
In the 2020 governorship election in Edo State and soon after, Ondo State, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) posted, arguably,it’s best performance in many years,as far as conducting elections goes. The commission laid out what will go down on records, as its gold standard in the conduct of elections. The B-modal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Election Result Verification portal (IRev) were introduced with aplomb, and deployed to robust efficiency. Nigeria had seemed as if, finally, its woes in the conduct of credible elections, were about to be put behind her.
It was such a breadth of fresh air, not because of those who won, but how they won. It was reported then, that while some political henchmen were on the way waiting for results to arrive the collation centres, for the usual treatment, the results were all out on the IREV. That was in 2020.
So much has happened in the four years in between, including ,the 2023 general elections,that shattered raised expectations. The BVAS and the IRev have sadly lost their aura, as many no longer trust the promises they held out at the onset. To make matters worse, the inviolability of those technology tools in the conduct of elections, have come under scrutiny and doubt.
Indeed, the belief now in many quarters, is that knowledgeable personnel from the election management body can now be procured to undermine the twin tools, or even shut them down, if need be. Truly sad. Who is to blame for this slide,or perception deficit?
To compound the depressing situation, the judiciary, now gives strange judgments on election disputes, often discountenancing whatever the BVAS or IRev says. In various instances in some of the elections since the 2023 elections, glaring cases of declared election results conflicting with data of accredited voters will be starring their lordship at the face and still, they will proceed to declare what they had to declare. This is the setting that builds up apprehension as Edo heads to the polls on Saturday.
The 2020 governorship election in Edo State was conducted under President Muhammadu Buhari, a man whose democratic credentials remain, at best, awful. But he came through that outing in flying colours, to the extent that he allowed the process to run through uninterrupted. The 2024 version of the same Edo governorship election is holding under President Bola Tinubu, whose once colourful democratic epaulette has lost so much shine within a short time. Such a contradiction and twist in fate.The country is watching.
How so wonderful it will be, if the roughly 2.5 million registered voters in Edo State are allowed to freely choose who to govern them. While there are 17 candidates jostling for the plum seat at the Dennis Osadebay House, in Benin, the final contention has come down to three; PDP’s Asue Ighodalo, APC’s Monday Okpebholo and Labour Party’s Olumide Akpata. Instructively, the fourth shadow candidate, who is substantially held responsible for the tension in the state, through the period of the campaign, will not be on the ballot. Adams Oshiomhole, has allowed his personal grudge to boil over and all of Edo, and even beyond, are going through an unnecessary tension in an off-cycle election,just because of one man who is not a contestant. That speaks of the force of his character, but to what purpose?
There is a lot in the Edo State governorship election on Saturday September 21 2024, that will offer clue to the future of elections under the Tinubu presidency. The temperament of every presidency impacts on the character of elections; off cycle and the main ones. How the police and the rest of the security agencies comport themselves, how even the Election Management Body does it job, and ultimately what the judiciary makes of itself, all draw bearing from the light shone by the presidency. There could be light at the end of the tunnel or foreboding darkness.
