Nigeria faces an acute fiscal squeeze over the coming decade as new figures reveal the Federal Government could be forced to commit nearly three-quarters of its total revenue exclusively to debt servicing by 2030. ​The Debt Management Office (DMO) detailed the projection in its latest Debt Sustainability Analysis report, released on November 9, 2026, at its headquarters in Abuja.
According to baseline figures outlined by DMO Director-General Patience Oniha during the report presentation, debt servicing is expected to swallow 71.7 per cent of federal earnings by 2030, far surpassing the agency’s benchmark sustainability threshold of 50 per cent. ​The figures signal a rapid escalation in repayment pressures.
While the debt service-to-revenue ratio stood at 60.6 per cent in 2024 and is projected to temporarily cool to 44.9 per cent in 2025, it will cross the risk threshold again in 2026 at 51 per cent. From there, repayments will climb to 57.1 per cent in 2027, hover near 57.4 per cent in 2028, surge to 67.3 per cent in 2029, and peak at nearly 72 per cent by 2030. ​
Under a worst-case scenario featuring economic shocks, such as a 30 per cent currency depreciation, a 2 per cent contraction in real gross domestic product, and a 2.5 per cent dip in federal revenue, the debt servicing burden could devour an overwhelming 97.3 per cent of government earnings by 2030.
​The trajectory raises germane concerns among policymakers and development experts, as it leaves less than 30 per cent of federal revenue to fund public infrastructure, healthcare, security, and education. Addressing gathering officials, Oniha stressed that while Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains technically moderate and is projected to fall from 53.7 per cent in 2024 to 27.3 per cent by 2030, persistent revenue shortfalls leave the balance sheet acutely vulnerable to external economic shocks and high interest costs. ​
To avert a severe fiscal crisis, the DMO outlined critical policy steps, urging the government to aggressively boost non-oil tax collection, maintain a unified and flexible exchange rate, keep petrol subsidy removals fully intact, and strictly prioritise long-term concessional borrowing over high-cost commercial debt.
