The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, that persistent high prices for essential goods threaten to deepen poverty and food insecurity across Nigeria, despite noticeable gains in macroeconomic stability and favorable terms of trade.
The warning was issued in the Fund’s flagship World Economic Outlook report, titled “Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices,” unveiled during the IMF and World Bank Group Annual Meetings held at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok, Thailand.
In its updated global economic projections, the Washington-based lender raised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 4.2 percent, up from 4.1 percent, and projected a further expansion to 4.3 percent in 2027. The IMF attributed this upward revision primarily to structural policy adjustments, forex market reforms, and improved external trade conditions.
However, the Fund emphasized that these macroeconomic indicators contrast sharply with the daily reality for millions of Nigerian households struggling under severe inflationary pressures. “Nigeria is supported by improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms-of-trade effects, though higher prices for essentials are expected to further aggravate poverty and food insecurity,” the IMF stated in the report.
The assessment highlights the scale of Nigeria’s current social challenges, estimating national poverty rates at 63 percent and noting that roughly 27 million citizens face acute food insecurity. Addressing delegates and journalists during a media briefing on fiscal policy responses, Dr. Deniz Igan, Division Chief in the IMF’s Research Department, emphasized the critical need for targeted interventions to mitigate the cost-of-living crisis.
“The key emphasis for policymakers is balancing near-term needs with medium-term stability,” Igan stated during the press conference. “Given that the prices of food and energy are increasing disproportionately, policy measures must protect vulnerable populations through food and energy security while maintaining fiscal discipline.”
The IMF urged Nigerian authorities to accelerate and expand social safety programs, specifically calling for the full deployment of targeted direct cash transfers to vulnerable households to prevent millions more from falling below the poverty line.
