Moody’s Ratings has revised Nigeria’s sovereign credit outlook from stable to positive while affirming the nation’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer ratings at B3.
The international credit rating agency issued the announcement in a rating action released on Friday, August 28, 2026, from its headquarters in London.
Moody’s attributed the upgraded outlook to significant gains in Nigeria’s external financial position, expanding foreign exchange reserves, and robust real GDP growth, which expanded by 4% in 2025.
The agency highlighted a surge in gross foreign reserves reaching $31.2 billion, and a current account surplus projected to hit 6.1% of GDP in 2026 as key buffers reinforcing the country’s resilience against global macroeconomic shocks. Additionally, Moody’s noted a steep deceleration in headline inflation, which dropped to 15.4% in July 2026 compared to 25.3% in July 2025.
”The change in outlook to positive from stable reflects improvements in Nigeria’s external position and stronger-than-expected economic growth, which, if sustained, would enhance the country’s capacity to absorb external shocks and support a gradual increase in government financial strength,” Moody’s lead sovereign analysts stated in the report.
Despite the positive shift, Moody’s affirmed the B3 rating, citing persistent fiscal vulnerabilities, including weak debt affordability and low general government revenue generation, which stood at roughly 10% of GDP in 2025.
Responding to the rating action from the Federal Ministry of Finance headquarters in Abuja on Saturday morning, August 29, 2026, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, praised the decision.
”This outlook upgrade validates the difficult but necessary macroeconomic adjustments executed under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration,” Edun said. “Our focus remains fixed on expanding the non-oil tax base, stabilizing the naira, and sustaining structural reforms to translate these ratings into tangible economic benefits for all Nigerians.”
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Olayemi Cardoso also welcomed the development during a briefing in Abuja, stating that the improved transmission of monetary policy and foreign exchange market liquidity have restored foreign investor confidence.
Speaking on behalf of the Presidency from the State House in Abuja, Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, emphasized that the decision sends a strong signal to global capital markets.
”The shift to a positive outlook underscores renewed international trust in Nigeria’s economic path,” Onanuga noted. “It paves the way for a future rating upgrade if Nigeria maintains its fiscal discipline and momentum.”
Moody’s signaled that a formal rating upgrade to B2 could follow over the next 12 to 18 months if Nigeria maintains its external buffers and successfully executes upcoming tax reform measures to boost government revenues.
