By Abiodun KOMOLAFE
The 2026 Osun State governorship election has come and gone. A winner has emerged and the rest is now history. Through it all, may God’s name be praised!
With the outcome being what it is, the All Progressives Congress (APC), Osun State Chapter, has a lot to do as it conducts a post-mortem on the concluded election. This is of course without prejudice to exercising its rights as guaranteed under the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to seek a reversal of the results at the Election Petition Tribunal and beyond. Meanwhile, the president has acted in a statesmanlike manner in congratulating the winner. This is to be applauded as it has defused the tension in the state.
Any post-mortem within the Osun APC should sensibly begin with a reexamination of the process of agreeing on a standard-bearer for any subsequent elections. This is important because the method used in producing the candidate in the last governorship election appeared to have triggered both resentment and disaffection.
This outcome is unfortunate, because the party actually had a very good candidate, Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO), who in the opinion of the discerning, had the preparation as well as the managerial capacity to have gone on to be a very effective Chief Executive Officer of the state. Well, since this intervention is not about the primary figures in the election, God willing, conversations around this man of immense courage will be a matter for another day.
Be that as it may, Osun APC needs to reexamine its modus operandi. A detailed examination of the election results indicates that many of those who “lost out” in the selection method sat out the election. On the surface, they “danced like David danced” with the party, but deep down, an unhealed grievance held sway; and as human beings, they could not have been expected to put their hearts and souls into the campaign.
This might well have made the difference, because a 66,252-vote gap cannot be interpreted as a landslide. An election victory that’s not a landslide is bridgeable with greater commitment and superior operational methods.
Secondly, the party’s media efforts are questionable. In a political campaign, as demonstrated most unforgettably by both the Action Group (AG) in the 1950s as well as its successor, the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) in 1978/79, a party must have a core message which resonates among the voters and enthuses them to get to the polls. The APC in Western Nigeria ought to be a reinvention of the AG and the UPN.
Sadly, in the last Osun State governorship contest, the expected core message that could have swung enthusiasm in its direction took flight. Thus, it was practically all foam, no beer; all sizzle, and no steak! Apart from playing on the word “AMBO”, no one can recall now what the APC message was all about. Unfortunately, even the AMBO fez caps have suddenly disappeared from the streets less than one week after the contest.
The absence of a core message clearly did nothing to swing the currents of thinking of the undecided voters into voting for the APC. This is important because fiercely contested elections are often decided by undecided, non-partisan voters, many of them voting for the first time.
This is a critical factor, as analysis of voting among first-time voters has shown. We cannot attribute first-time voters swinging towards incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke to the ‘Davido effect’ alone, although this was a factor. Osun APC did not even offer a perfunctory, coherent counter-narrative to capture their imagination.
A very good analysis showed, for example, that Adeleke won in all the polling booths stationed around Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife. This is instructive, for commonsense indicates that this pattern might have been replicated across the other tertiary institutions across the state. The general feeling too, alarmingly, is that this was not limited to educational attributes alone; non-scientific indices available suggest that even among artisans and the youth in the informal sector, the swing was towards Adeleke of the Accord Party.
A post-mortem ought to answer the question: “Why was this so?”, then ask the eternal political query: “What is to be done?” The APC had better find answers to these issues. Finding a solution must start with evaluating the efficacy of its youth organisation. It must examine the lack of a core theme as well as the suitability of the mediums used to propagate that theme. This ought to be done dispassionately – not as a witch-hunt, but as a serious appraisal in order to reboot.
Osun APC would do well to look at how well it did, or did not, among a myriad of key groups such as traders, small businesses, the informal sector and public servants. It needs to evaluate its public outreach as well as superior campaign strategies. If, as speculated, the performance was well below par, it ought to establish a clear framework to be used for a reboot following this exercise.
Once again, this is not the time for fault-finding, responsibility-shifting, blame-trading, or witch-hunting. This is a crucial opportunity for hard truths and hard thinking – akin to research – to be translated into positive, effective implementation to deliver results in upcoming elections. In this manner, it would be akin to turning defeat into victory. This is precisely what a political party ought to do following an electoral setback.
For example, this path was taken by the Workers’ Party in Brazil after early presidential losses, carrying out a root-and-branch analysis that eventually propelled it to victory and lasting political influence. A similar shift occurred within the Democratic Party in the USA after losing to Richard Nixon in 1968. Furthermore, the British Labour Party developed “The Third Way” after assessing successive electoral setbacks. Osun APC should follow suit. There is solid work to be done in a dispassionate, effective manner, devoid of acrimony. It should begin this task immediately, as it represents the progressive alternative in Osun State.
Politics is what it is! When its recipes are prepared with the right choices, it produces a wholesome elixir of development and social harmony; but when done otherwise, it ends up killing promises and destroying hopes. As a teenager growing up in Ijebu-Jesa, my Native Nazareth in the early 1980s, I could name one or two people who became prominent due to the politics of right choices. I could also count on my fingers a few whose futures were destroyed by the politics of wrong calculations, never rising from their predicament until God called them home.
What do I mean? Osun APC’s internal trajectory is indeed a study in “us-versus-us” politics. The tongue and teeth that share the same mouth sometimes clash. Still, they resolve their differences. But why has genuine reconciliation eluded Osun APC, and who stands to benefit from this recurring cycle of disappointment from one term to another? Until the party addresses both internal reconciliation and the structural realities of being out of power, it risks remaining an enclosed battleground rather than a winning machine.
To remain relevant, regain its footing, and restore confidence among its supporters, Osun APC needs to define exactly what it stands for and stay tuned to the frustrations of the common man to rebuild its base. Essentially, instead of manufacturing indefensible reasons to pacify disappointment, soothe the moment, or please the crowd, many of the so-called “leading personalities” and accidental “power centres” should now interrogate their self-importance in recalibrating the party’s electoral fortunes. This leaves one critical question to answer: “Why did so many of the seemingly high-and-mighty lose in their own fiefdoms – even in their own polling units?”
May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!
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