Following the release of the list of presidential candidates of the parties by the INEC, we now have a picture of the presidential candidates, the gladiators lined up for the 2027 crucial general elections. The die is cast. The election date is January 16, 2027. Primaries were wrapped up end of May. It’s looking like a rerun of 2023 faces, but with new party banners.
The Big 3/4 to watch are Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling APC. As the incumbent. he got APC ticket May 23 with 10,999,162 votes vs 16,503. His running mate is Kashim Shettima, former governor of Borno State in a contentioius Muslim/Muslim ticket once again like in 2023. The Tinubu/Shettima combo flounts incumbency and federal might as their addvantage.
Next is the indifatigable Peter Obi (PO) of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC). In 2023, PO was LP candidate, now NDC sole aspirant. HIs running mate is Rabiu Kwankwaso, former governor of Kano State of the Kwankwassiya Movement. The campaign focus of the Obi/Kwankaso (OK) combo include insecurity, poor governance, hunger, unemployment
Then there is Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). ADC is now a coalition platform with David Mark, Rauf Aregbesola, among others. The INEC-recognized ADC faction picked Atiku Abubakar over Rotimi Amaechi and Hayattu-Deen
atiku’s running mate is Rotimi Amaechi, the former governor of Rivers State. There’s also a rival ADC faction that chose Dumebi Kachikwu as its presidential candidate.
Goodluck Jonatan (PDP Turaki faction). This faction led by Kabiru Turaki declared him candidate in absentia. The rival PDP faction backed by Wike named Sandy Onor but INEC can only recognize one per party, so courts will likely decidetheir fate.
Other confirmed candidates include Seyi Makinde, Allied Peoples Movement APM; Omoyele Sowore, African Action Congress AAC; Donald Duke, Peoples Redemption Party PRP; Adewole Adebayo, SDP (Gombe NWC faction); Abimbola Atanda, SDP (Gabam camp; Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, Accord; Aliyu Bin Abbas, Action Democratic Party ADP; Adekunle Omoaje, Action Alliance AA; Anita Zugwai-Chukwu, Young Progressives Party YPP and Sunday Adenuga, BOOT Party. At least 11 candidates are expected on ballot, from more than 15 parties that beat INEC deadline.
How the parties are shaping up is of interest. The whole thing looks like a 3-way race narrative. Analysts say it’s narrowing to Tinubu vs Atiku vs Obi. Kwankwaso teaming with Obi in NDC makes it tighter. Opposition disarray: SDP, ADC, PDP all have factions producing multiple candidates. Opposition summit in Ibadan even discussed fielding one candidate. Familiar faces: Same top names as in 2023. Tribune calls it “recycled ambitions and a handful of newer entrants.
It’s basically 2023 again, but with party switching. Tinubu with incumbency, Obi with Kwankwaso coalition, Atiku leading ADC coalition, and Jonathan as a possible wildcard if PDP faction holds. People are asking what could be the possibilities. With primaries donecompleted and 11 names on ballot, analysts are basically seeing 3 scenarios. It’s Tinubu vs Obi vs Atiku, with everything else as noise unless a coalition holds.
First scenario: Tinubu wins Rre-election with APC retaining power. What could make it happen include incumbency advantage – control of federal budget, projects, security, and above all rigging. Vote split in opposition: Obi and Atiku divide the anti-Tinubu vote, especially in South-East, North-Central, and South-South. North-West and South-West hold: Tinubu keeps his 2023 base. Also If inflation/fuel/food prices ease by late 2026, which is unlikely, he campaigns on “stay the course.”Tinubu’s main weakness include biting economic hardship, insecurity and “time for change” sentiment.
SEcond scenario: Obi and Kwankwaso coalition upset the chart and NDC wins. How this can happen: Youth and urban vote surge for OK. NDC mobilizes 2023 “Obidient” base and Kwankwaso’s Kano/North-West structure. Anti-incumbency: As hardship persists, voters go for “new direction. “Regional balance: Obi takes South-East/South-South, Kwankwaso delivers Kano and parts of North-West, making up for losing North-East
Coalition discipline: No major infighting. ADC/Atiku faction collapses and some move to NDC. OK strength lies in assive goodwill, social media, perception of integrity
Third scenario: Atiku and ADC Coalition wins meaning return of PDP era. How it could happen: Mega coalition works: David Mark, Aregbesola, Amaechi as running mate bring North + South-West defectors from APC. PDP machinery revived: Atiku uses old PDP structures even under ADC banner. North unites behind him: If North feels “marginalized” by 4 more years of South-West president, they consolidate. Atiku’s strength lies in experience, name recognition, broad political network. Main weakness: “recycled politician” tag, age, factional fight in ADC with Kachikwu camp.
Meanwhile, PDP court battle is still on. If Turaki’s “Jonathan” faction or Wike’s “Onor” faction wins INEC recognition, PDP could still be a factor. Jonathan retains national appeal. If Jonathan accepts and runs seriously, he cuts into both Atiku’s and Tinubu’s South-South base.
As for Sowore, Duke, Makinde, they can’t win, but could take 1-3 percent each and affect tight margins. Security and voter turnout would be low turnout in conflict areas or voter suppression claims could flip results. The campaign starting in August will decide who blinks first in the coalition talks.
First 100 days of Obi presidency: Expect audit of government, cut cost of governance, tech/digital push, negotiate with labor. Atiku presidency: Expect return of PDP-era appointees, IMF/World Bank deals, privatization. Risk: “Recycled” cabinet backlash.
National impact: Party realignment: APC could fracture. PDP may collapse completely if Atiku wins on ADC. Governors: 2027 governorship elections 3 weeks later become referendums. Many APC govs could fall. Either way, expect reversal of some Tinubu reforms – subsidy, forex, tax bills all up for review.
Dr. Onyekakeyah. a former member of The Guardian Editorial Board, is a public affairs commentator and a DailyQuery columnist.
