The warning from International Energy Agency (IEA) Chief Fatih Birol on March 23, 2026, paints a sobering picture of the current global energy landscape. He described the ongoing situation as a “triple shock”—essentially two oil crises and one gas crisis combined into a single, unprecedented event.
​Birol highlighted that the current disruption has surpassed the infamous shocks of the 20th century.
During each of the major 1970s crises (1973 and 1979), the world lost approximately 5 million barrels per day (mb/d). As of late March 2026, the world is losing an estimated 11 million barrels per day.
With the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, nearly 20 mb/d of crude and refined products roughly 20% of global consumption are currently trapped or disrupted.
​The crisis is no longer just a “paper” market issue; it is a physical supply emergency.
At least 40 energy assets across nine countries in the Middle East have been reported as “severely or very severely damaged” due to the escalating conflict.
While Brent crude futures have surged past $100 per barrel (peaking near $126), the “physical” price of oil is even higher. Refiners, particularly in Asia, are paying massive premiums to source oil from the Atlantic Basin to replace lost Gulf supplies.
Economists warn that sustained prices at these levels could shave 0.2 percentage points off global GDP growth while adding 0.7 percentage points to global inflation.
​The IEA has triggered the largest collective action in its 52-year history to prevent a total economic collapse. Member countries have unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves.
Birol warned that while the stock draw is a “welcome buffer,” it is only a stop-gap. The IEA is now urging governments to implement immediate demand-side measures, such as reducing speed limits and encouraging remote work, to curb consumption.
​”No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues in this direction. This is the greatest global energy security challenge in history.” Says Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director.
