The current fuel situation in Lagos and across Nigeria as of March 2026 is reaching a critical tipping point. While the country isn’t seeing the “dry pumps” and massive queues of previous years, it is facing a severe price crisis driven by global conflict and local market adjustments.
In the last 48 hours, fuel prices have surged significantly. This is largely due to the Dangote Refinery raising its gantry (ex-depot) prices multiple times in a single week to reflect global crude oil volatility.
National Average In places like Abuja and Ibadan, prices have climbed as high as ₦1,250 – ₦1,400 per litre.
Diesel (AGO) Prices have crossed the ₦1,600 mark, with some outlets selling near ₦1,750.
The primary driver of this sudden spike is the escalating conflict in the Middle East (involving Iran, Israel, and the U.S.), which began around late February 2026.
Global Brent crude prices jumped from roughly $80 to over $115 per barrel in a matter of days.
Experts note that the Dangote Refinery has acted as a buffer. Without it, analysts suggest we would be facing ₦1,500+ prices and acute physical shortages.
Despite its capacity, the Dangote Refinery is reportedly receiving only about 5 crude oil cargoes instead of the 13 required to fully satisfy domestic demand, leading to calls for stricter “Domestic Crude Supply Obligations.”
