Former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and political economist, Professor Kingsley Moghalu, has predicted that identity politics, specifically religion and ethnicity, will play the most defining roles in determining who emerges as Nigeria’s president in the 2027 general elections. ​
Moghalu, a former presidential candidate, made these remarks while assessing the country’s shifting political landscape. He expressed concern that despite Nigeria’s pressing economic and developmental challenges, the electorate and political elite remain deeply polarized along primordial lines. ​
According to Moghalu, the traditional voting blocs in Nigeria have become increasingly entrenched since the 2023 elections, and the trend is likely to peak in 2027. He noted that political actors are already leveraging these sensitive fault lines to build alliances and capture power. ​”
As we approach 2027, it is becoming glaringly obvious that competence, character, and economic blueprints will take a backseat,” Moghalu stated. “Regrettably, religion and ethnicity will be the primary determinants of the next presidency.
The political calculations being made right now are not about fixing the economy; they are about regional balancing and religious alignments.” ​Moghalu pointed out that the informal power-sharing agreements, such as the rotation of power between the North and South and the balance between Christian and Muslim leadership, have become highly contested.
He warned that this fraying consensus could create a tense political atmosphere. ​The breakdown of these conventions, he argued, will lead to a highly competitive environment where candidates rely heavily on their regional and religious bases to negotiate their way to the top. ​
While analyzing the implications of this trend, Moghalu warned that choosing leadership based on sentiment rather than capability would only prolong Nigeria’s economic struggles.
He urged the Nigerian youth and the enlightened electorate to resist manipulation by politicians who weaponize identity for electoral gain. ​”We cannot fix a broken economy with ethnic sentiment,” Moghalu concluded.
“Until our politics matures to a point where we vote based on measurable track records and viable governance ideas, true development will remain elusive.”
