By Uche Chris
From every indication, it seems 2027 is already a done deal – a foregone conclusion – to the disappointment of most people, not because of the sterling performance of this government led by President Bola Tinubu, but as a result of the political dynamics of Nigeria thrown up by the lost opportunity of 2023.
Many people would object seriously to this assertion, insisting that its poor record, and particularly, the hardship imposed on Nigerians with the twin policies of fuel subsidy removal and the floating of naira, are cogent enough reasons to sack it. Fair enough!
Anger, Frustration not Enough
They may well be right in their protestation, but it doesn’t change the fact that President Tinubu is most likely to get an encore in 2027, not because it is the will of Nigerians, but it will be so based on the nature of Nigeria, and the political forces at play. The point is that we missed a golden chance to reset the leadership direction and, perhaps, the political fortunes of the country, when we selfishly and unconscionably allowed the emergence of this government.
Yet, some people would still argue that the government was not backed by popular electoral mandate of a majority of Nigerians, as Labor Party vice presidential candidate, Dr. Datti Baba Ahmed, would not cease from saying, having emerged with the lowest votes by any president of just eight million. That is immaterial to the fact, and does not absolve the culprits from responsibility for our present predicament.
Responsibility for Tinubu’s victory
All factors considered, former vice president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and firmer governor of Rivers State, and current FCT minister, Nyeson Wike, both of PDP, should bear the blame for the election of President Tinubu.
Without their unbridled ambitions and utter disdain for the constitution of the party and it’s zoning principles, Tinubu may never have become president, given the resolve of Nigerians, and especially, the youth, to make a political statement by doing away with the clueless APC government.
But the duo aborted their dream. What happened on election day was only a fait accompli; elections are rigged without serious repercussions where a person or party is sufficiently popular to ordinarily win, while using rigging to concretize its victory and forestall any surprises.
The election was already lost before the March 3 polls. There was no way Tinubu would have been defeated running against three other contenders; and the results proved so. The combined votes of PDP and LP, which would have gone to one of them, were almost double that of Tinubu. Having lost that opportunity, how possible is it now for them to unseat the president in 2027, since it looks likely they may still be the key players? What is the likelihood of a coalition emerging?
Any Possibility of Change?
It is much more difficult now, in fact, almost impossible, to defeat the president in 2027, because the political forces and interests have shifted in his favor, even against a coalition. Any coalition that produces a three-candidate contest will be a fluke. With PDP already opting out of any coalition in anticipation of Atiku’s desire to run again, such a coalition will be a one legged amputee – unstable. So, the coalition road is uncharted, and leads to nowhere.
Of course, politicians are the most optimistic people, who believe that they can win any election, and would gleefully point to other climes, where somebody won after several attempts. Such may very well be true; even here, Buhari won after four contests, but are the circumstances the same?
Paradise Lost
In 2023, the element of surprise worked for the opposition; it will not be so in 2027, as the ruling party has not only consolidated, but is making sure opposition parties are weakened. The PDP, LP and NNPP are all in disarray.
Again, the political dynamics do not conduce for either a southern president beside Tinubu, or a northern president in Atiku. Either of them raises potential moral issue of fairness, equity and justice. Tinubu would have done four years by 2027, and to have another southerner for eight years will be unthinkable, and politically intolerable to the north. Which is the reason some northern leaders are vehemently opposed to the idea of a coalition against Tinubu. Also, to cut short Tinubu’s presidency after a term for a northerner after Buhari’s eight years, will be unacceptable to the South.
As bad as the government performance may be with respect to the economic and security situations in the country, political calculations in both north and south favour a continuation of the Tinubu’s presidency. Although, our anger against the government may be righteous, and indignation justified, truth is that we missed our paradise in 2023, and sadly, we can do nothing now to change it.
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